This x1000…spot-on analogy.
Peloton fell off the NASDAQ 100 today.
Thanks. Not surprising. They were teetering at the bottom of the list for a while. Even at $31pps, they still have a market cap of $10B, which is at the high end of pre-pandemic forecasts. Of course, coming from 5x that number provides a different perspective. I’m guessing that they will settle into a valuation that models the middle of the non-S&P8 tech rev/sh or eps models.
It’s been a wild ride. When the price went through the roof last year, I regretted selling when I did, but in hindsight, I’m pretty happy with my profit!!
2 Likes
Oh.
1 Like
Who could possibly have predicted such a thing?
1 Like
Man am I happy I took the money and ran. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/20/peloton-to-pause-production-of-its-bikes-treadmills-as-demand-wanes.html
High flying companies, and those that invest in them, get rewarded in good times and can loose when the tide turns. [Peloton has unfortunately had a series of missteps/downfalls]. Whether foresight or luck, good for you.
1 Like
Ooof…pretty brutal. I wish I could say I am surprised, but honestly the only thing that surprises me is that it happened a lot fast than I expected.
See…now is about the time when vultures like me start to get interested in PTON.
2 Likes
I have not followed this closely and am well out of my bounds in your world here, but would people start to see this as one sign of an impending “bust” related to the bike/fitness “boom”?
1 Like
Unlike most stock falls of high flying companies (e.g. Zoom), PTON’s fall has been a series of missteps, from a big earnings miss, to the highly publicized insider selling issue, to the treadmill issue. So its an aggregation of issue that has led to such an uncommon big fall. The only think greater, from my recollection, is GameStop.
2 Likes
Yeah, PTON so far has been a story of marketing prowess but engineering mediocrity.
1 Like
No!. While not apples-to-apples, would you see Lance’s inditement for use of drugs a downfall to cycling in the U.S.?
Peloton created the category of quality in-home exercise. It’s not a fad. It’s created many competitors and many categories of products outside of just cycling. Etc.
1 Like
Totally agree. Also, don’t forget the advertising missteps. I think damaging the “cool” vibe among the soccer mom crowd does a ton of damage.
The big one now is Tonal. I know a TON of OG Peloton people, and I’ll bet 1/3 of them have the Tonal now, and they constantly evangelize it…just like they did with Peloton in the early days.
How many years have you been a USER of Peloton?
1 Like
A reasonable question…and while I don’t think it is an automatic that the bike industry will follow, or will suffer as great a decline, I think the situation with Peloton can certainly be seen as a potential leading indicator. Leaving aside the cycling crossover, they both saw massive gains as a result of COVID and people looking for entertainment / fitness.
I know I felt all along that the surge in bikes was a bubble, not a long-term growth, so yeah…this could be the first sign of downturn for bikes from the COVID highs.
1 Like
What about falling demand and the impact on growth? If people go back to the gym, or decide to not buy new hardware, isn’t that going to have a big impact on valuation?
1 Like
Well, I think the “big earnings” miss covers the falling demand.
Also, worth noting that a lot of the issues highlighted are intertwined…even though the exec stock sales were part of pre-planned sales, you’d have to be pretty naïve to think that the execs didn’t see the writing on the wall and knew when to plan their sales.
I don’t think the treadmill issue had much of an impact, but I’d have to go back and check dates, etc…and honestly, I don’t really care that much. 
1 Like