Elevation adjusted
And yes, it’s different at Lost Canyon than the top of Columbine, which is why climbing power should drop as you go up Columbine.
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Ok cool, that’s what I would have thought but wanted to confirm. Looking at my Powerline preride on Strava, I see that I had to avg almost 300w for 1 minute on the bottom before giving up and jumping off to push. That isn’t that far from my sea level FTP but on race day, I’ll certainly step off before it gets that hard On Columbine, I was able to stay closer to adjusted FTP, just going over for very short punches at the top. This is all me going as easy as possible with a 32t x 52.
It’s unlikely I push too hard on race day and need to monitor power to dial down. I tend to use power to make sure I’m pushing hard enough and gauge effort by RPE. In my limited rides here at elevation, my heart rate seems a bit suppressed so seems harder to use that as a reference point than usual.
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And of course the steepest part has to be at the top!
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Too late for Leadville 2025 but add some deadlifts to your weekly workout routine to strengthen the lower back for the future.
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My final plan for a sub 9 hour finish starting in green corral again. I went out too hard last year (on 8:45 pace through Lost Canyon), got ahead of my maple syrup nutrition plan, and GI distress followed by a bonk up Columbine and all the way back to OB. Broken chain on St. Kevin’s and I came in at 10:07.
Using Maurten 320 and Skratch High Carb for carbs this year.
I’m 204 lbs and 316 W FTP at 7,000’
Feel confident about per hour needs (120g carbs, 1900mg Na, 2L) but am going a little easier on these the first 2 hours.
Went 4:55 at the SR50 this year (missed red by 45 sec)
If you see me or my pink bike on course say hi!
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We have to find a way to catch up before the race, I’m in green too so we’ll probably see each other out there. Here are my times from last year and while I’m really pacing by power/RPE/HR - I’ll be following these and monitoring how the day is going.
| Start | 0 | 0:00 |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Out | 10.6 | 0:48 |
| Sugarloaf Summit | 18.9 | 1:28 |
| Powerline | 22.2 | 1:40 |
| Outward Bound | 24.8 | 1:48 |
| Pipeline | 28.3 | 2:01 |
| Singletrack | 35.4 | 2:28 |
| TL Dam Out | 40.6 | 2:46 |
| TL Alternate Out | 44.3 | 3:02 |
| Goat Trail Up | 50.7 | 4:16 |
| Columbine | 51.7 | 4:36 |
| TL Alternate In | 59.2 | 4:59 |
| TL Dam In | 62.9 | 5:17 |
| Singletrack | 68.1 | 5:38 |
| Pipeline In | 74.5 | 6:07 |
| Outward Bound | 77.9 | 6:21 |
| Powerline | 80.6 | 6:35 |
| Sugarloaf Summit | 84.0 | 7:18 |
| Carter Aid | 92.3 | 7:54 |
| Boulevard Bottom | 101.4 | 8:28 |
| Finish | 104.8 | 8:44 |
(Note that the Singletrack on mine is the actual singletrack bottom and not the random timing places they have on course that you see in splits)
Almost the same kit for me this year, but I have the gravel suit so no pack, and the Purple Oiz now has black RockShox Flight Attendant instead of Fox.
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Green corral as well. Targeting sub 9 and these are the splits I shoot for. I know a steadier pacing strategy would allow you to make the turn at columbine at 4:45 and still hit sub 9, but I like to have some buffer in case issues arise in the 2nd half of the race. Flat, gut issues, heat, sometimes the headwinds pick up, etc. And I don’t want to be right at 9 hour pace late in the race and get tempted to push hard on the downhills when fatigued. I’ve made the turn at columbine in under 4:35 every year I’ve gone sub 9 and always had a 10+ minute cushion at the end. So, I guess the first half of my pacing plan is really an ~8:50 pacing plan.
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I think my splits are similar for a 9 hour pace starting from blue
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Got the bike back and it is running well. Got out for a ride yesterday and this morning. There is a jeep trail which is pretty rough but rideable from the Airbnb so that so for a spin of the legs. The altitude doesnt seem to have a bad effect luckily. We are staying at 8600ft and been sleeping well. Driven back down to Denver today to take my 11 year old son to a bounce place to let him burn some energy. I was also able to pick up a micro isb cable as I forgot one for the SRAM charger! Wife did a bit of shopping as well.
Head back to the Airbnb later. Tomorrow we drive to Leadville and I am going to ride sugarloaf and powerline and then go and pick up my race pack.
Does anyone know if the shuttle buses are running from the school tomorrow or do you park in the town?
We are staying in copper tomorrow evening for three nights.
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Good to see others’ 9 hr pacing plans are very similar to mine.
That said, I feel like I realistically only have maybe a 10% chance of maintaining that pace. 10 hrs is probably a more realistic target but don’t see any reason to target that since I really only care if I go sub-9 or sub-12. I will be starting in the Purple corral and wearing the kit in this picture (the beard is gone) - holler if you see me.
Curious re others pacing for 9hrs, what’s your confidence level?
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Theoretically I should be fine for 9 hours but I’m from 100ft above sea level. This is the first time I have been at this altitude. Been feeling fine and haven’t noticed any issues so far but ok the day it might kick me in the butt. I was 172lbs and 338w ftp when I left the uk so around 4.3 w/kg. I’m did a vEveresting on zwift last year where I averaged 200w for 14 hours (I was 40lbs heavier then so took a long time to complete) so I k ow I can do long days at that level of power out out. Plan on Saturday is 180-200w on the flat and aiming for 230w on the climbs but will allow it to drift up to a max of 250 if needed. We will see. I’ll be happy to complete the race but thought I might as well shoot for the 9 and see what happens!
Last year I thought I had a 50-50 shot at sub 9:00. I was probably right at 4 w/kg sea level. I was on pace through twin lakes return but completely imploded right before Powerline and limped home very slowly for a 9:50.
This year I’m feeling 50-50 again but w/kg is more in the 4.2-4.3 range and hoping to execute better on the day with nutrition.
Good luck out there and definitely worth just going for it! My only suggestion is to be honest with yourself. If you hit twin lakes outbound in 2:45-2:50 but are already really starting to feel fatigued then I might try and course correct goal time before a complete melt down.
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Do you think it was the nutrition that mainly caused the implosion last time? Anything else you plan to do differently?
I’m probably not too far behind you in terms of w/kg. My last TR AI FTP has me at 4.4 just over a month ago but since then I’ve dealt with back to back colds and have basically had what amounted to a one month taper so would guess I’m closer to 4 - 4.2 now. Those are sea level numbers.
While I spent hours making the pace chart, I’ll ultimately pace by power and RPE and know when to pull the plug based on prior experience.
Good luck this year!
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Watched this last night. Interesting that the decision between bikes - even for pros like Alexy - is not easy. He mentions the drop bar setup that he tested did not feel right - too stretched out and too high. Keegan’s setup looks pretty extreme - a very short downward angled stem that hits the steerer cone.
Alexy just rode by my campsite on flat bars, so I assume that’s what he decided
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it sounded like he was inclined to go flat and full suspension, but dropper a must.
Parson is going flat and full suspension but I think high post. I love all these different setups
Just rode Sugarloaf climb and powerline descent. Felt good on sugarloaf. I think the descents will be where I lose time and might not make 9 hours. 18 mins to descend with a stop but was also dodging people coming up. I’m on a hard tail. I enjoyed the top end of it. Didn’t enjoy the very steep section at the end.
Bike felt really good though especially on the climb. Running Dubnitals 2.4s with 16/18.
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A ton of folks out riding around St. Kevins to Carter this morning. Got passed by Lachlan and Kate and a bunch of other rather fast looking folks I didn’t recognize.
Good to get out on the bike for an hour. I took a nasty spill on Tuesday and smacked my face into a rock and ripped some skin off my palm (my gloves were stupidly in my back pocket). Just a dumb nothing spot on the course, lack of focus for a moment. If I had to race yesterday, I don’t think I could have lined up but I’m feeling a bit better today and still have some healing time. The face still hurts bad (pretty sure I fractured my cheek bone), but I think the missing skin on the hand is going to be the biggest annoyance on race day. Planning to ride super cautious to keep things upright.
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My opinion: The descents are NOT where you will lose or win this race. Take it easy, don’t crash or flat, and you’ll be fine. Think about it, you might pick up a couple minutes, max.
Under no circumstances should anyone feel like they’re pushing descents unless they’re a really competent descender and familiar with this course. Stay relaxed, get down safe, and then ride smart and hard elsewhere.
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