Speaking of train your gut now, the aid stations are Neversecond so anyone taking advantage of them should make sure they like those gels and/or drink mix now rather than on race day. They might have used them last year, but when I was last there in 23, it was still all Gu products. N2 is far superior in my opinion.
Pacing:
I am planning to use the TrainerRoad 11 hour bench marks for the climbs and the 9 hour benchmarks for the flatfish section. (bottom of power line to Columbine). I would like to break the sub 10 hour mark, I am at 3.5 w/kilo at 190 pounds. Rode the course, as expected much slower than the group on the climbs, but also stronger than the same group on the flats.
Here is my proposed plan:
1:06 to Carter summit, and 2:01 to Sugar Loaf (TR 11 hour plan)
2:26 to Outward bound. Will I get caught up descending Power line? I am a good descender, but will I ride slower on race day than practice?
2:39 to Pipeline
3:26 to Twin Lakes Dam
3:44 to Lost Canyon
Lost Canyon to Top Columbine: 1:27 (or 1:45 from TLD). Cumulative time to Columbine would be 5:12
Outward Bound (inbound) at 6:50 â riding very quickly after Columbine.
Three hours from Outward bound to finish to break 10 hours.
Negative split, yes. But I am fairly disciplined at pacing.
Thoughts?
My personal opinion is pacing by time is a BAD idea for most people. Much better off pacing by a combination of Power, RPE, and/or Heart Rate (Although HR is a no go for some people because of variability) and riding within yourself. Time is generally more of a byproduct. The exception being you know yourself and the course well, or youâre up against time cuts.
Time checkpoints should be used as a check on where you are and if you can (or need) to push a little harder, but can also cause someone to go out unrealistically hard and destroy themselves if those times arenât realistic, and thereâs a lot that goes into that (more than w/Kg). Iâve had people next to me breathing like they were doing a VO2 effort next to me on the first climb up St. Kevinâs and you feel sorry for how that personâs day is going to turn out.
Generally, Iâm climbing starting out ~85% ish of Altitude adjusted FTP and heart rates around 80%, with the asterisk being that power drops some for me later the day while still allowing me to ramp it up and finish strong. And, for Columbine - throw it out the window as you climb and go by HR or RPE. If I keep that constant I can see my power drop as I ascend.
(Heart rate for me is pretty reliable, even at altitude, and I just went back and looked and I peaked below 85% for the entire 105 miles, about 12 bpm lower than my threshold heart rate, with the exception of the final climb and push up the boulevard to the finish where I was maybe 3-4 bpm higher.)
Generally agree, particularly if you havenât spent much time on the course.
But if you have an idea of what kind of watts/time you can put out at elevation, many of the segments become very predictable for time. The first year I did the stage race, I made some assumptions about my power at altitude and then did a bunch of strava stalking to get an idea on time splits. You just find ~10 other riders in your weight range with real power data and I found it to be crazy close on time. I was literally within 2 minutes on almost all my splits the first couple days (and this was my first time spending any real time on the course). I was riding by power, but the time splits were confirmation. I fell apart a bit on day 3 trying to hit a stretch time goal for corral placement, but my take-away was that much of the course is pretty simple and predictable math. At least the climbs. Descending and the flats sections can have bigger variables due to rider ability, wind/course conditions, and whether you can find good groups to draft in. But if you grab enough strava data for your calculations, that stuff tends to average out statistically.
I still agree that power and RPE are much better guides on race day (particularly if you are racing conservative) and let the time fall where falls. But having split times really helps me mentally and can also inform race tactics in real time (especially if corral placement is a goal).
I like neversecond, but my fear is always what ratio they are mixing to.
For sure, they claim it will be a 60g mix. But I remember taking roctane from the aid stations that was pretty darn watery last time. My plan is starting with my drink mix, refilling w water the rest of the day, and doing gels/bloks for everything else. At least I know I can just grab some gels from aid though, rather than having to carry everything.
Generally someone like you was exactly who I was thinking of in my âExceptionâ bucket 
Iâve gotten there too, but this is my third year in a row in the race and 5th trip to Leadville coming up.
But I agree - IF you know how you react to altitude, know how long you can put out power at certain levels then it can get a lot more predictable. But, most people racing the 100 just donât fall in that bucket and are better off letting the time be a byproduct. What you donât want to see is someone trying to do threshold or threshold+ on the climbs to hit a time goalâŚ
I use neversecond gels pretty often, so in a perfect world I start with a handful and just let Lifetime resupply me at each aid station and save $3 a gel 
they were mixing 90g at the camp a few weeks ago
Youâre the same weight and W/kg as I, youâre totally ready for sub-9. Why do tou think you canât?
I agree with @BCM donât set time goals. Go with how you feel - youâll feel good and bad throughout the day and time goals can get in your head. Find a good group, have fun and aim for the big buckle.
Donât listen to the âyou have to be 4W/kgâ crowd to go sub 9âŚtheyâre incorrect, bc I did it.*
*a disclaimer is how you respond to altitude and your durability
Take it a step further. People say 3 w/kg for the small buckle and 4 for the big, like that defines someoneâs strength at all. X w/kg at what, 20 min, 60 min? Whatâs your repeatability like? If you dial it down 90%, then how long is your TTE?
My opinion is certainly donât go into a race like this underprepared, but take online âtruthsâ with a big ol grain of salt.
Youâre like me then. Iron stomach - I swear I could fuel this race on corn dogs
(Definitely not trying it though!)
I agree with others to be careful on putting time limits. I did the same thing last year and had an elaborate time frame for each checkpoint that I had spent hours preparing. This ended up just adding more stress before an already very stressful day and was completely non-sense once I flatted twice before the top of Columbine with over 40 minutes of fixing two flats.
I think a much better approach is knowing your power limits and what you want to hold on the climbs. Heart Rate you can also watch but kinda goes out the window at altitude. If you are able to pre-ride you likely can get a general idea. I also donât plan on having anything on my top tube this year and just going to focus on power numbers and feel. The only time frame I will take mental note of is my time once I get to the top of Columbine and knowing it is a negative split.
We must have been riding close together. I finished 6:00:52. I didnt pay attention to time when riding, but earned a Leadville coin in the lottery so hopefully the 6:05 corral time is used :).
Not for everybody though. As long as I adjust my FTP down for altitude - Iâm pretty dead consistent HR with IF% and can see that in the data I have across my last two LT100âs. Even at the top of Columbine I wasnât blowing up from a HR perspective. You do need to have a good sense though of heart rate at sea level / home and what your threshold is in LeadvilleâŚ
It is going to vary by the person though. Mineâs always been a pretty steady and much more reliable metric than for some people.
My HR seems to run lower at Leadville for some reason where I hear of others saying theirs is higher. Was staying up there last week doing some hiking with my wife and my resting HR was in the 40âs which it typically is in the low 50âs. On the hikes and one ride it also seemed really low compared to where we live at 6000â. This was the same last year when I road/raced up there. I think it does vary by person and you just need to know your body.
For anyone running Flight Attendant on their bike at Leadville (I think @BCM ) , do you plan to adjust your power zones for altitude? This will be my first year racing leadville on a FA bike and I hadnât really thought about it until today when I was messing with my bike.
Part of me says that pedaling at 225w should want the same suspension setting at altitude that it has at sea level. But, at sea level, I wouldnât normally be climbing or pushing hard at 225w while at Leadville itâs a fairly hard pace. I know FA can adjust these zones over time based on riding (and I guess I could try that during pre-rides at leadvile), but Iâve been setting those values manually after playing a bit with the system and I like my current settings. Iâm thinking about just dropping everything ~17% and trying that on a pre-ride and see how it feels. Any thoughts?
First time thinking about it for me.
I might leave the sprint zone the same because thats getting anaerobic which doesnât change at altitude. But I might lower the top of low through bottom of high when I get there and see how it feels? Or, just do that and then let it adjust on itsâ own throughout the 2 weeks Iâm there?
Edit: just checked I feel like I may lower mine and let them adjust while Iâm there. Otherwise I think Iâll be open too much. At the same time, I do use the override a good amount.
(So much for blissful ignorance 
)