@Captain_Doughnutman where did you see this? I’m not aware that this is the case. Perhaps it’s something related to available training time and resources? Focus on threshold might reduce the number of specific VO2max sessions and attenuate responses. But I can’t imagine it would reduce it.
Either way, if the increase in threshold continues to improve performance then probably not an issue…
The process goals are great. Get on the bike 12 times per month following TR workouts in the winter and and additional 2x outside when the weather permits.
Then add the TSS numbers on top.
I know it’ll be hard for me to get to the W/kg goal if I put an actual number on it as I have Z-21 when it comes to healthy meals and Z+63 when I include the beers with the meals 
First off, I remembered it backwards in my OP and have to correct myself:
a reduction in VO2/ANaerobic ceiling can result in an improvement in lactate threshold.
When the anaerobic capacity is lowered less pyruvate is produced for a given effort level. Thus, the lactate threshold will increase without any change in the ability of the body to process aerobic energy or to shuttle lactate.
You’re mixing together VO2 and anaerobic efforts. VO2 max is your highest aerobic oxygen update. Your anaerobic capacity is a fixed amount of anaerobic work you can do above threshold. A reduction of VO2max means very different things than a reduction of your anaerobic capacity.
In reference to your quote, that site was simply talking about anaerobic capacity vs FTP. It’s not considering VO2max at all.
I have heard it claimed that there’s a tradeoff for working on increasing FTP vs anaerobic capacity. I’ve not seen a specific physiological mechanism mentioned for that in the past. But the pyruvate as described seems to fit with my prior understanding.
From what I’ve heard from those who’ve followed the Hickson protocol for the full duration, they summed it up in one word: “dread”.
I believe the original ‘70s experiment was conducted with untrained subjects. Hickson found that VO2max was still increasing at the end of the 10-week protocol but none of the subjects were willing to continue! At least @chad gives us a rest week every once in a while. 
(Still trying to locate it but I think I’ve read the original protocol was designed around two-week ramps of VO2 levels; Wk1 started low and Wk10 was maxed out.)
Thanks for correcting my understanding. Will admit to blasting through that reading & bookmarking it for later (a bad habit with bad results!).
VO2max was still improving at the end of the training study, so they asked if participants would be willing to do another few weeks. 100% emphatically declined!
When to give up? Only when you lose your love for the sport, which is largely under your control. Nate’s advice is gold dust, and I’d also add that surrounding yourself with people you like and who are equally committed to riding faster is helpful.
I was in a similar situation to yours: I started riding lightly at 32, after having spent my 20’s smoking a pack a day and not exercising. I started lifting at 27, then got into rowing at 29, which lasted until I discovered bikes. I’ve been able to get up to Cat 3 on the track. The only thing holding me back is my commitment to SMART training. I’ve had a long history of riding as hard as I can for as long as I can tolerate, then burning out and falling off. This kills progress.
TrainerRoad provides numerous great things. First, there’s this community. I like the forums and reading about people’s experiences and improvements. Second, the training plans are dynamite–the trend in all of them is getting three focused workouts each week. Follow them. Don’t follow the protocols outlined in scientific studies, because you’ll miss out on tons of small details that add up, in addition to drowning in the tedium of repeating the same (arbitrary?) protocol day after week. TrainerRoad’s hard VO2 + anaerobic sessions are considerably harder than you will likely ever push yourself outside of a competitive race. That’s vital.
More vital still is that TrainerRoad builds in de-load weeks and intelligent recovery. The notes on the recovery weeks on every plan drill the very simple and very true notion that adaptation happens when you’re not killing yourself on the bike. 3 weeks of hard riding followed by 1 easier week goes a long way. The fastest guy I know, a kilo TT silver medalist at Elite Nationals, rides maybe 8hrs/week and is inordinately structured in his approach. His diligence around recovery is next-level. The guy’s not a genetic freak; but because he’s focused, and knows how to rest, he hits 10.5 on the flying 200, a 1:04 sea-level kilo, and did a 50-mile XC MTB race in under 6 hours.
Question: VO2 training can “pull” FTP up, but by how much? Is there a general ratio or is it another case of individualized “it depends”?
Ex. the Hickson study raised VO2max by 44%; what was the accompanying increase in FTP?
All else equal, a VO2 max increase will deliver an equal % increase in FTP.
The two things in the all else equal statement that matter are mechanical efficiency, and % of VO2 max that can be held for a given duration - which I believe is largely driven by lactate clearing ability.
Generally, I think you’ll see similar FTP gains.
One interesting thing about the Hickson study though is the variability in response by participant. If I recall, one participant saw almost no increase in VO2max, and for another it almost doubled.
Not sure how credible (or recent) this is, but thought it might be interesting for you:
The study showed that smoking history only meaningfully affected VO2 Max for their 20-29 year old participants and the smokers had less than 2% lower VO2 max levels between smoker & non smokers in the older age groups.
That is fantastic, happy to read it. Hopefully I don’t pay for it with cancer.
Interesting about the smoking. I smoked heavily from 16 to 28 years old and haven’t felt like it held me back since starting cycling around 6 years after quitting. If anything, my 5 minute power is my greatest strength from testing on Sufferfest and just KOMs generally. I have very interesting power numbers on my curve around to 1 minute to 5 minute range in just my second year of cycling. To temper this brag, my sustained power is comparatively pants 
Always wondered how the smoking thing fit into it. Where I live at the moment is full of smokers, always hacking it up outside. Should hear them in the morning when they go out into the cold, they sound like they’re in the last throws of aggressive cancer. Can’t imagine one of them jumping on a bike and blasting it up a 5 minute climb full gas, even after months of quitting. Would love to know how long it takes before you go back to a certain percentage of full lung capacity.
Great post! Sounds like you have read James Clear’s book?
No, I haven’t heard of James Clear before. The behavior model is common in the business books I read. They want you to have your employees focus on behaviors rather than these goals that no one really knows how to hit like “20% increase in sales”.
n = 1, but when Coggan followed Hickson’s protocol for a few months, his ability to crank out watts for 5 minutes got better. His FTP and 40k TT performance declined.
if you only do one type of training, you get good at one thing.