It’s not £1500 but £2500 as the bike started life with an RRP of £4500
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Sustainability of any price progression is an even more complex question, because that rolls into things like wages and the economy as a whole (and who knows what else?).
- When looking at “luxury” items that are not essential for most buyers (other than those that use a bike for primary transportation), there is much subjectivity compared to looking at things like the price of milk or bread.
I have no relevant experience or info to offer with that long-term question.
Ok but that is why I was asking is there a bubble? because my perception is this is an inflating balloon. too much too fast and will pop.
- Where is that info on the price, since the one in the links is 5550 original?
- It could be useful to know the context and any related info of the time, to understand the change that you mention.
Its true there is a discount applied to the original 5500
The closest I can find. I know the RRP because I own that bike.
OK, that is a hair bit different from the original link you posted above.
Compared side by side 1st link - 2nd link)
- Interesting the price / discount on the left is the same as the right.
- Also note the difference in part number (circled).
I have no idea what is happening there?
When I posted the initial link I was just posting a bike to compare against. I already knew the RRP, so included it in my post but didn’t check the price on the page I posted, my fault!
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I think this thread has slowly gone full circle, back to ‘is the rise sustainable’ (i.e. ‘is there a bubble’)? As things move up in price faster than inflation or typical wage rises of their consumers, they become relatively less affordable: I think we can all agree on that point.
Ok, so what happens then? Well, basic economics dictate (at least) one of the following happens:
- Consumers carry on buying at the same rate but make sacrifices elsewhere
- Consumers gradually start buying less
- Competitors start entering the market
1 is unsustainable. 2 and 3 will force a price drop. So I suppose to answer the question, then no, the price rises in mid-range bikes (I know that’s an ambiguous term, but we all know what I mean) cannot continue indefinitely to rise ahead of inflation - not least because it’s not in the manufacturers’ interests. It seems they are trying to find that drop-off point.
All this, of course, assumes that demand remains relatively constant. A spike in demand (such as we have seen this year) creates upward pressure; a fall (such as we might see next year if the used market becomes flooded) creates a downward pressure.
There you go. Problem solved 
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But every golfer golfs “officially”. That is, it’s always done on a real course and you pay to play the game.
Cycling is less “that way” IMO. We’re in a performance bubble on this forum, but the vast vast majority of bikes sold are not performance bikes, and look nothing like them.
I’d argue skiing is more like cycling than golf is like cycling. Lots of non-sanctioned equipment because most people don’t compete. The ones that do spend a lot of money on specialized equipment.
Thanks very well said.
I would add to this the fact that there is no technology disruption to back this dramatic upward price trend.
Can they continue…absolutely and almost certainly will. Will they continue at the rate we saw this year? Not likely.
Personally, I don’t see the boom continuing. I know a lot of analysts feel that it will continue, but I think once the industry “catches up”, things will go back to “normal” and demand may even drop in the second half of 2021.
IN fact, based on what I have heard from people I know, it would not surpsie me in the slightest if there isn’t a glut of product next year OR an extended model year as suppliers have leftover inventory. (Shimano could, of course, upset that apple cart if they introduce 12 speed stuff, as is widely expected)
The 12 speed example would only apply obviously to certain road bikes, so depending on what component suppliers do, some key bike models may very well have extended model years.
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This is what I meant: whether prices will increase at the rates we have seen lately.
Since you believe they will not we do not have such opposing points of view.
The net effect will be a decrease in price compared to salaries… therefore in PPP we may well witness the bubble popping
So many posts with so little substance, just another excuse for people to argue and project. Some personal context using a middle of the range bike with middle of the range pricing, a bike I actually own.
In 2016 I bought my brand new Emonda SL6 with an MSRP of $2,999. The MSRP for the new 2021 Emonda is $3,299. If we use 1.2% inflation, that alone would bring the price of the 2016 to 3150 today. So for that extra $150 of horrific price gouging by TREK, you’re also getting better brakes (as well as a newer more expensive Ultegra groupset), an aero frame, as well as the refinements they have done to the layup of said frame. Yea, JB at TREK must be living large from all the corporate greed 
Another example. £1000 per year rise.
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Funny I was just doing a similar exercise:
- my 2015 Domane 6.2 Disc retailed for $5000
- comparable Ultegra bike is the 2021 Domane SL 6 at $3800 retail
And then price jumps to $6000 for SL7 with Di2 and lighter components including some pretty awesome wide (25mm internal) carbon wheels.
But comparable in my mind is the SL6 and it is a price reduction.
Some tradeoffs with upgrading… the new one is a little heavier, but more versatile with wider wheels. Old is 600 series carbon and rear only ISOspeed, new is 500 series carbon and front/rear ISO. Absolute max on my bike is 28c tires (e.g. Conti GP4000 28c were too wide), the new Domane takes up to 38c.
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A counter point and one which points to an unsustainable position regarding price increases is the used market.
Plenty of high end bikes going for sensible money and a disconnect from the new market. Ok we are heading into winter in the northern hemisphere but a couple of S works Tarmac are struggling to sell at £4K
Of course the other side to a bubble is it attracts speculators. Nothing wrong in that but when you see a Sagan S Works Tarmac listed on EBay at £25k which has now dropped to £19k.
Somehow I think they’ll struggle to get above list…
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I saw that and burst out laughing! I think someone is getting confused with the high end car market and the bike market.