I moved over from xert to TR but one feature I do miss from xert is having an idea of how much I can increase my FTP after a training block - this would give me some much needed motivation as I’m slogging through the the last sections of a training block wondering what my 30 day FTP AI improvement w…

Years ago at the start of TRs AI, this is something they said would be possible. It sounded like they didn’t roll it out because it was difficult to message and was heavily based on compliance. “3 months ago TR said I would gain 20W and I only gained 15!” Hopefully Nate’s non-comment means they figu…

[image] BenB: Hopefully Nate’s non-comment means they figured out a way to overcome those concerns. Maybe some sort of confidence interval. Although everyone thinks they will get 95th percentile results.

Not sure if this is you telling me to ‘stfu that’s the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard’ or hinting something is in the works … please could you clarify :grin:

There’s something new coming that’s currently in beta, so this is very much Nate having fun and not him telling you to stfu.

Let. Me. In. The. Beta!!! :kissing_face_with_smiling_eyes:

I think predicted FTP would be really hard because you just don’t know how the athlete is going to rate the workouts a few weeks out. To take a ride from “hard” to “all-out” I’d have to up the intensity by at least 5%. I would think that would create a pretty large error factor, but I may be undere…

You can’t quantify it. Doing a series of workouts <> FTP will increase this much. Physiology doesn’t work that way.

You could look at others who have done a similar series of workouts who are similar in previous training and say that you would expect a change of X% to Y%. The confidence interval could be pretty wide.

But if you’ve ever looked at research where they’ve controlled the variables as much as possible. You see rather a wide range of response. The confidence interval would be very low based on population level trends. It’s be about as accurate as using 220 - age for your max HR.

[image] GoLongThenGoHome: The confidence interval would be very low based on population level trends. I should have said wide. But they wouldn’t be narrow or low.

Have predicted FTP improvement at the end of a training block

TrainerRoad Software

Nate_Pearson December 23, 2025, 4:34pm 2

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Speculation thread - what feature(s) is Jonathan trolling us with?

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Have predicted FTP improvement at the end of a training block

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Have predicted FTP improvement at the end of a training block

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