Has the estimated FTP model changed between 2024 and 2025?

[Niv24]

Has the TR estimated FTP model changed between 2024 and 2025?

Circa June 2024 TR IA FTP had me at 265w (intervals.icu had me much lower at 236w), this always felt way too high. My April 20min all out hill effort is pinned on the graph below at 243w.

June 2025 TR IA FTP has me at 257w (intervals.icu has me at 255w), this feels accurate.

If I season match my FTP curves, I am substantially ahead in 2025 vs 2024 for time periods above 8minutes (my 20 minute power is 23w higher) yet my FTP is lower?

Intervals.icu has the FTP the other way round with 2025 better (and very close to TR) than 2024. My experience on the bike and looking at similar rides I am definitely stronger this year and the FTP feels right.

Interested in the experience of others in the historical accuracy of the TR FTP assessments. Been feeling disappointed in the AI FTP numbers when compared to last year. But it seems that the 2024 estimates might have just been over inflated

[HLaB]

Intervals and AI FTP can be miles apart and you really can’t compare them. Intervals calculates on a single one off max effort of whatever length you’ve specified in its settings, whereas AI FTP looks your whole career. Maybe last season you never done that maximal effort for intervals to calculate something closer to AI FTP and this season you have, but if it “feels right” don’t worry about it.