www.mywindsock.com gives you some good info about the weather impact and wind direction upon each bit of your ride. If you pair it with a PM it’ll give you more analysis and if you subscribe more analysis still. (I forget what was in the free version but you got quite a lot, including the weather impact report).
Agree with WindWarrior here. Whilst everywhere and everyone is different, 12mph is remarkably low as a cut off to me. It’s very hard to change the weather, so I’d look at other options to make riding more comfortable and enjoyable if possible!
The average wind speed in the UK is 10mph and it’s frequently 20mph steady with gusts over 30mph. Equipment choice and particularly staying relaxed across the whole upper body makes the world of difference. I happily ride 75mm wheels up to about 25mph steady and 35mph gusts and will ride 45mm wheels up to 50mph+ if I really feel like going out. Whereas if I’m on a TT bike then I’d be much much less confident in big wind because of the wheels on that bike and because I’m just not as relaxed in that aggressive body position so any gusts get reflected back into moving the bike rather than absorbed by my body.
in the UK if that was my limit I’d probably only ride 2 or 3 days a year. I’ll really only take cognisance of the gusts when they are +35mph and will probably swap out the 62.5mm deep front wheel on the TT bike for something shallower, as I’m a lightweight who’ll get blown around. On a regular road bike it will have to be in the region of 45mph+ before I consider my route, like @WindWarrior says, up to then its anticipation as said also,.
My commute home on Tuesday night was 49mph I opted for a more off road route but other than it being hard the terrain here doesn’t rule cycling out usually. Where I’m from originally I’ve cycled in worse but more anticipation was needed as the terrain is more variable and frequent route consideration was needed. The high exposed FRB would often be shut at speeds I regularly commute in down here.
You guys are really highlighting the problem here. 12 mph seems low to me too, but I’ve learned that if the forecast shows gusts above 12 mph I will most likely have a miserable ride. Below 12 mph it’s usually borderline or not a problem.
I have absolutely no idea what the wind speed actually is, and no way to accurately measure it. Using data reported from weather stations hasn’t helped much because the closest ones aren’t really on my route and they seem to only update every 1.5-2 hours.
Yesterday all 9 forecast models in Flowx and ECMWF’s gusts displayed in Windy showed less than 12 mph. I rode for 3 hours and I estimate that for about 2/3 of that time the wind felt significantly higher than 12 mph. It didn’t ruin the ride completely but it did ruin parts of it.
Other than just tolerating it I don’t know what to do.
Going to be honest, I actually enjoy riding in 15-20mph sustained with gusts over 30. We have some vineyards along my routes, with weather stations that report to Wunderground.
You know how you can use speed and power on a calm day to get “virtual elevation?” If you know speed, power, and actual elevation (like, on flat roads or on a known hill) you can calculate “virtual windspeed.”
Circa 15 years ago one of my most enjoyable rides was a century with gusts at peaked at 120mph near my turrn. I plotted a route nearly direct into it but hugging the Glens west of Callandar and nearly direct and flatter route back so it was tailwind and no side wind. On the way out it was Storm showers/Sun/ Storm showers/Sun etc and you couldn’t stop fast enough and put your rain jacket on/off before it changed again. The turbo boost along the lochs were great. The bridge at the east of Loch Venachar was interesting if I remember. That was the only section of side wind and I chose to get off for that short section.
That’s why it’s “virtual wind.” You may not know exact yaw angle and how that affects your effective CdA, but you can approximate it by asking “what’s the equivalent zero yaw wind that would produce the observed speed for this power and slope?”
Power and speed are typically used by the head unit at 1 Hz, so what you’re picking up is virtual wind of about that length. It often helps to know that wind direction (except when passing buildings or coming out from behind sheltered areas) varies on a time scale much longer than that so (except for the caveat above) you’re more likely to change direction than the wind; and also that wind speed is often well-modeled by a Weibull distribution. What this means is that if you know your GPS heading and you smooth the virtual wind with a Weibull, when you compare virtual wind with a handheld anemometer you can (surprisingly?) get results that aren’t shabby.