Simple answer:
A study of the literature shows there might be a slight difference between exercise and not, but probably not a meaningful one.
Having the coffee whether you exercise or not will probably impact your sleep. It can either affect your ability to fall asleep or your sleep quality. Even if you are the type that can sleep after having two cups of coffee after dinner, the data suggests that your deep sleep/REM cycles may be affected. Does that have a meaningful impact? It’s complicated.
The best test is to just try it out. Go with a week without the coffee and a week with the coffee in the afternoon, then assess your sleep quality.
That 1991 paper wasn’t the best because they didn’t control for cigarette smokers, menstruation cycle amongst other things. All of which can affect caffeine metabolism. Subsequent studies didn’t show a significant difference between exercise or non exercise. Also, their version of “exercise” was 30% VO2 max which is better than nothing, but we’re more interested in something like 70% VO2 max efforts. There isn’t a whole lot of research in this area though so we don’t have much to work with.
Sources:
https://www.physiology.org/doi/pdf/10.1152/japplphysiol.00762.2000