I doubt that better education/information would make a difference. I’m just surprised that people aren’t asking for a version “just like the old one” so they can return to some imaginary retrotopia where everything was perfect.
I haven’t read all the posts on this subject (there are too many). But, my sense is users just want to know something akin to the “formula.” What variables change the predicted FTP value and in what direction. We could then look at them and make informed decisions about training.
Some variables you can play with and see the effect:
Difficulty rating higher than “EASY”, extra TSS, pausing an indoor workout. But are there others like HR, normalized power for outdoor workouts, amount of time between workouts?
I have a PhD and I perform simulation modelling forecasts in an environmental science context. In other words, I have some similar domain knowledge. I don’t believe that I could fully understand the models that my bike training software uses, even if they gave us all access to their code on github or whatever. At least, not sufficiently to make my own conclusions about it.
FTP prediction should just be continually 2weeks out. I think for me a lot would be solved if the predicted FTP was always 2 weeks out. Never further or closer. It would still provide useful feed back about “what if i add a ride or drop a ride & how that will change my ftp perception” but softens the triggering (for some) variability of it all.
And you still get a new ftp 1/mth. As has happened for a while
I think I’d prefer that at least…
@jmmetsar Every time I inquire, there is a new facet they surface, but even with that I have not been able to parse weightings. Also of note - the tools are really only for workouts selected from their ecosystem; if they come from an outside coach or outdoor I do not see them impact career whatsoever.
I like this but can do one better.
An entire predicted power profile curve projected 2 weeks into the future. Let’s say you’re in specialty phase for XCO. It’s entirely reasonable that FTP will decrease during that phase because the focus is on repeated anaerobic efforts of a XC race. So the shape of the power profile is expected to change.
Something like this would have seemed nuts 10 years ago but with the amount of data TR has on us… maybe it is possible.
I would be very curious about what percentage of the originally predicted FTP actually happens. I would imagine very very few, thus proving your point