It’s planning and setting goals. Anybody that’s gone outside and tried to hit a time/distance goal (Strava PR anyone? ) on a windy day understands that it’s just benchmarks. We know Jonathan has some leeway built into his plan, and he makes that clear.
Forest for the trees my friend. I don’t think anyone is saying if you do exactly x watts on an individual segment that you will always hit the time down to the exact second. Of course there is variability, but doing the math on a course like Leadville is a proven approach to get you really close most of the time.
Last year was a slow course and I think it was ‘23 that was really fast. Those kind of days might buy/cost you around 10 minutes vs the math estimate, but the math is still valuable. I don’t know if Jonathon’s plan has a buffer in for bad course conditions or not, id bet he needs a good course to have a shot at 7. I usually put in a 15 minute buffer for going under 9 and all of my big buckles fall between 8:40 and 8:55. Wattage was within 2-3 watts normalized.
Maybe 
Hey @Jonathan, I would love to hear which model you are using to scale your FTP at various elevations and why. This would be excellent podcast material for me, might be a bit niche, but what else are you going to talk about in episode #590? I can find models by Peronet and Basset. They differ significantly. Right now, I am using an average of the two.
I’m not Jonathan, but I don’t know of anything beyond Bassett and Peronett.
My experience though is that it varies per individual and based on a number of different factors, and you’re better off getting to the point you can do some form of a modified test interval / check interval once you get to Leadville to see how it impacts you personally.
First, I’m pretty comfortable “Feeling” my FTP based on a target power, RPE, Heart Rate. At least within 5-10 Watts and I do it a bunch at home during training. I can feel the switch for when I’m under / at FTP to over. So what I do - get to Leadville on a Sunday, give myself 4-5 days, maybe do 4-5 minutes at Target FTP on Thursday. Then Friday / Saturday I do 15-20 minutes trying to dial it in by feeling.
Yes, for sure it varies individually, how much I don’t know. I’m not doing Leadville, but I live and primarily train at 1,700m of elevation. I also enjoy the numbers side of things and look for ways to evaluate my efforts at elevations that are lower or higher than my home.
Have you had luck with arriving 4-5 days before? I think I remember Jonathan discussing in the podcast that it’s best to race immediately after arriving at elevation or after you have acclimatized for 7+ days. I think he said that 3-5 days after arriving at elevation, performance is actually the lowest. Perhaps this is why Pogacar performed relatively worse in the Kigali WC time trial (racing on the third day after arriving) than in the road race (8 days)?
I remember that pod too
I think the individuality part is actually really important.
For example - I’ve never felt worse than the day after I arrive so the arrive and race technique doesn’t work for me. I personally start getting better by the day. By day 5, I’m pretty decent and the FTP check and my bigger rides work fine then before tapering down the last week. But, the two full weeks works a lot better before the race itself for me.
And, the actual percentage of FTP, you have to remember those are averages of a bunch of people. The reality is there’s a bell curve With people below 15% loss, and people probably above 20 or even 25% loss depending on the individual and how much acclimatization.
Best thing you can do is something like camp, or just go to Leadville on your own and ride sometime before the race and see how you react.
(Coming up on my 2nd camp next week, 4th Leadville, plus one more trip there, so this will be trips 6 and 7 with all but two of them at least a week long)