I think that 32” are probably going to be seen on the enduro side first. XC will be fringe for a while, but you can’t do R&D without bikes in the field, so there may be limited releases for those souls brave enough to do beta testing on geometry and 32” specific components.
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When you can barely tell the difference across a dozen or so brands in both looks/feel/etc., market convergence has fully settled in.
Some bike brand is going to have to go out on a limb and try something fully wacky soon, otherwise they should really just all start using the same frame molds.
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I bet there’s a very high chance that some of the big players will be releasing a 32 bike, at the very least initially in the XC WC circuit.
Time to market for regular bike projects is around 2 to 3 years, but if a brand goes into “all hands on deck” emergency mode that time can be significantly shortened. Particularly if resources from other projects are deviated into it
Maybe the new thing will be aero, kinda like road bikes are going through. IDK how that might make sense for mtbs, but take the new Factor as an example of aero wackiness.
I think we will see prototype 32” bikes racing in XC world cups next year.
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We went through this with fat bikes five years ago. 26 vs 27.5. Roughly equivalent to 29 vs 32 XC sizing. Everyone looking to go fast moved back to 26 inch wheels. Just too much weight (mostly rubber) to spin up and down through corners. If you are going in a straight line at near constant speed then the larger wheels might prevail. I think 32s are going to find their sweet spot in gravel or maybe road.
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Considering how much extra grip and cornering speed some people are reporting from 32 wheels, I wouldn’t be surprised if the extra mass/inertia is not that relevant
I joined a Gary Fisher race team for the launch of their 29’er Paragon, it was ideal bc Trek at the time was fully integrated to build everything for the bike w Bontrager components. Specialized and Trek can do the same today, Scott and Orbea to some degree - it’s the bits and pieces that make it hard to release a bike. I also predicted to friends that a 32’er will be raced XC this year.
32” wheels have already been seen on the XCO World Cup so more of them showing up is likel but I don’t think they will gain much momentum until someone wins or riders with it consistently get on the podium. On MTBR one of the complaints mentioned from pros is the weight. If they aren’t winning I wonder if we might see them on e-bikes.
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I typed out a long curmudgeonly sounding post. But deleted it.
People say that, but I doubt I could convince my 5’ tall girlfriend to give up her 29” Epic hardtail for anything.
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Seen but not raced yet. They were used in warm ups etc but not actually raced. Yet. They are heavy, aluminium and the lighted component’s aren’t quite in line also. They will be heavier for sure and so were 29’ers back in the day.
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This thread went off the rails to 32 world.
ibis should be releasing a new Exie if they want to stay in the game.
Pivot could probably do some geo tweaks to the Mach 4 and actually make a long travel version and a short travel version
Canyon is due for a change
Orbea jut updated the Oiz recently, so I don’t see that change.
Trek needs the Too Fuel to lose some weight
SuperCaliber probably gone just like the Epic WC
Others???
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Blur could really use an update too
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Yeah, I keep looking at the Santa Cruz website for an update. Not feeling hopeful.
For me at the moment the new Anthem looks like a good bet, even though my heart is always drawn to something a bit more boutique.
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I really wonder what’s up with Santa Cruz since they’re discontinuing the HTSQD. Between that and killing of the XC world cup team after the ‘24 season it sure seems like there won’t be a new blur for a while
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You think Ibis is moving away from the DW link on the Exie or doing some other updates?
Wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Epic WC and Super caliber go extinct. The use case for those models seems to be incredibly small. They weight virtually the same as the full travel models, and require the same maintenance as those, so it’s not like they occupy some mythical place between fully and hard tail. They seem to rather imply the negative traits of both types of bike. Then FA might have been the final nail in the coffin
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I’m pretty loyal to my local Trek shop- great dudes, but Trek’s offerings just aren’t competitive right now. Comparing roughly the same component spec, I’m not gonna pay $7k for a 29 pound Top Fuel with 120 mm of travel or $9k for 25 pound Supercaliber with 80 mm when the Epic 8 is $6.5k, 24.5 pounds and 120 mm.
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That’s why I said what I said at the beginning. The similar concern about 29ers ended up being overblown, so maybe this will be too, but for now, I’m skeptical.
Does she run a small or XS? My wife is 5’ and I have her on a XS epic 8. I think it’s the expert but can’t recall.