I think i might be ok as long as a bunch of Fast Germans don’t show up! I did IM Wales in 2017 in the sideways rain and wind and missed out by about 60s on Kona - so I’m not far off.
Since then i have a 2:37 marathon - again is better. But it seems we have some crazy fast guys in the 30-34 in Europe and often only 3/4 slots so again its back to picking your races and playing to your strengths
I have moved away from the longer stuff and gone to shorter stuff, but on reflection i would say that the key to a good IM is as always a super strong bike. being able to bike fast that is a fairly moderate % of FTP will get you a slot. So push your FTP high, ride learn to ride at 70% of it for 5h and stay as aero as possible. The run will be a piece of cake provided you fuel properly.