None of the GC guys will do anything before the last climb. Then one of the teams will up the pace until it’s only the GC guys left - and it’s ultimately going to end up mano a mano.
The question is when on that last climb will just the 5-6 GC leaders be left. Maybe with 6 km to go, and then one of them will go on an attack to try get time (the climb hits 9%+ grade with 6 km to go). Pog will only go if Vingegaard goes… but he’ll need to go if Carapaz or Uran make a move.
This will be a fun one. I’ll have to stay away from news/socials until the evening after my local XC race when I can watch the highlights.
Don’t forget Carapaz. He really has the most too lose. Ineos is having a terrible Tour. If they can’t even get him on the Podium, they will walk away with literally nothing. Plus Carapaz TT isn’t the best. So Ineos really needs to drop as many GC contenders as possible. They will be riding all out for the podium and likely ignore Pog and more or less accidentally protect his yellow jersey (like they have been all Tour). Pog can basically let Ineos do all the chasing. But I think he will loose patience and just go on the attack anyway.
To add some numbers: Vingegaard put 40 seconds into Uran and over a minute into Carapaz the first TT. The next TT has a similar length, So Ineos better drop him hard today or tomorrow, if they want the podium.
apparently radio tour announced that Carapaz was distanced, so they thought they could get some seconds. After no one followed he probably took the opportunity to get some extra TSS for the Olympics.
They might be able to get away from UAE, but they aren’t going to be able to get away from Pog.
Whenever someone talks about a scenario like this, they almost never factor in that the guy they wanna gang up on is the strongest guy in the race. So at some point, he just says “OK, you wanna play games? Let’s go…” and drops the hammer.
Remember, these guys all know Pog is the strongest guy out there….which automatically blunts their efforts to some degree…at least mentally. This is hurting the guys attacking too, so when they see Pog latch on, it is hard to keep digging in a futile effort.
There are examples of teams collaborating…it is probably most commonly seen in the Vuelta, where Spanish teams have been known to work together and oust a foreigner (see Sean Kelly or Chris Froome). But it needs to happen in the right circumstances and happen from a long way out (usually).
In addition to the discussions above, there is actually a rule requiring each rider to work for their own chances and teams are not allowed to give assistance to riders from other teams.
It’s all funny language as bike racing is built on alliances and cooperation. But those cooperations are meant to happen spontaneously to make the racing exciting, not as collusion or organization between teams to “fix” an outcome.
Long story short, if all of a sudden teams 2-5 were overtly and obviously colluding to put Pog in difficulty, the race jury might have something to say about it.
That’s esoteric rule stuff but thought folks here might appreciate the nuance.
Attacking Pog also assumes the teams could actually shell Pog without shelling their own GC rider first. From what we have seen that is doubtful.
Perhaps ironically, most folks will focus on attacks in the mountains. Pog is probably most vulnerable in stages 17 and 18 during the long flat sections leading up to the climbs. Once the race hits the climbs he will feel much better about the situation.
Finally, the asymmetric comments are spot on. Asymmetric risk and reward but also asymmetric ability. If someone manages to go all in today and gain time, they risk blowing up tomorrow and giving it all back plus some more. That’s huge risk on a gambit that will likely fail. If a GC rider did gain time both days then Pog still out TT’s them (most likely based on prior results and known abilities).
Anything could happen but likelihood is pretty low. Barring misfortune the yellow jersey has all the advantages at present.
Yeah exactly. If all the teams would work together to put pressure on Pog in reality that would mean each team sends their GC guy up the road and let Pog chase him back. Rinse and repeat until he gets tired and one attack sticks. But obviously that would mean Teams burning their GC guy and eliminate their own chance on a podium, just to help another team to get up there. That’s just not going to happen. Even if the time gaps would be closer.
Vingegaard really has been riding nicely. Lets hope I didn’t just jinx him !!!
It will be interesting to see if his first TT predicts his second. If it does he has a nice shot at second place at the end.
I think Uran, Carapaz or both will come to difficulty in either 17 or 18. Nothing against them but they seem close to the limit. If Pog and Vingegaard go at it hard, could be collateral damage. Riders in 5th - 8th are all within shouting distance of podium so we could get some interesting tactics outside of guys trying to figure out a way around Pog.
While I think it’s hypothetically possible the other guys could gang up on Pog/UAE to some effect, as others have noted I think it’s very unlikely to happen in practice. It requires a degree of trust and cooperation that simply doesn’t/won’t exist. It also assumes Movistar or Ineos don’t do something daft that is in no-one’s interests, and both have too much history in that department for that to be a valid assumption.
In all probability, Pog has this sewn up barring a crash, or a mechanical that somehow happens when a team car is several minutes away. I would hate for anyone to lose the TdF like that, especially by crashing, but there is a part of me that thinks Pog losing 5 minutes today to a freak mechanical would make the next few days very interesting to watch.
The Polka-dot battle is also gonna be interesting. The contenders have to attack quite early and better make sure either them or some random breakaway will win the stage.
If Pog wins and/or places high today and tomorrow he will once again win the polka-dots by accident.
This! Attacking him on the flats, where his advantage is less pronounced, is (in my opinion) the only way he could possibly lose the tour short of a crash. If there are cross winds and he misses a split before the climbs he could ship significant time, otherwise all the uphill attacks in the world won’t cost him the 6ish minutes he’d have to lose
If a GC-team would decide to attack on the flat you still have the same situation where the other teams will do the chasing because they don’t want to loose their position.
Ineos shedding riders like crazy already on the first mountain, while UAE looks unusually strong. Depending on how Carapaz feels, today might be the end of his podium hopes.
