I’d agree with your educated guess/take on the new Crux. I do wonder if though, they could still differentiate the diverge from the crux in many ways, while boosting the clearance for both to 2.2. The diverge can have storage, all the mounting options for bags and stuff, more relaxed geo, higher stack etc. The crux can be your no nonsense race bike to tackle any course you throw at it - race geo, and no storage or mounts to save weight and keep things clean esthetically.