By any rational measure you are. You are in the 92nd percentile of male TR users on low volume. Luminaries in the fitness industry have said that not everyone can get to 4 w/kg on even 150tss/d. The line plot chart from Couzens shows a median line at 4wkg at something above a ctl of 100.
Unfortunately for you that means you are an outlier. People are different, no one is blaming you. But we also don’t think you’re average. No offence. 
I might have gotten a bit ahead of myself because I am not quite at 4w/kg yet but now ever more so determinded to get there!
The question asked was ‘what does it take to reach 4w/kg’ and I say the answer first and foremost is not ‘volume’ or ‘genetics’ but several years of consistent training! And maybe reasonable age 
For pro level fitness of >> 5 W/kg it will be a different story, though, most likely genetics>consistency>volume>age.
But I actually find the chart by Couzen to show a relativly weak effect of CTL on w/kg. As it was stated before you’d need to on average double your Fitness/CTL from 50 to 100 to raise w/kg from 3.5 to 4.0. A humongous increase!
And since the RMSE of the data set is ~0.58, a random atthlete is only moderately less likely to to sit at 4w/kg with 50 CTL vs. another athlete to sit at only 3.5w/kg despite a CTL of 100.
This also means that I am currently not an outlier, nor will I be if I manage to reach 324W at 81kg, because Couzen would predict me to hit 3.66w/kg with 44CTL, so only a deviation of 0.34 (well below 0.5)
The question is, if the amount of CTL is not a phenomenal predictor of w/kg - what is? I’d argue it’s most important to have a CTL at all in the first place. Only then other factors like volume, training type and quality, nutrition, recovery etc. slowly come into play. Probably with great individual variation.
To constantly have a CTL, it’s also very important to prevent excessive fatigue and thus burn out.
I might have missed it but his chart seems to also not account for age, gender, weight and prior training experience (e.g. newbie vs. seasoned athlete).
That 55yo ripping off legs on your local group ride almost certainly did not get there by doing 12hrs/week for a year or two. It’s been consistency over years and years, probably decades, that got him or her there.
So far, even though progress has slowed down quite notably I am still eking out new FTP PBs in my fourth year of TR on similar volume.
I believe it cannot be overstated that consistency is key and that a sustainable training volume is more important than a high training volume.
It’s hard to separate consistency and volume completely, they are interrelated. Yes, you need to consistently train to improve and sustain. But consistently doing 15 hours a week is going to yield better results than consistently doing 10 hours a week. It’s likely true that people who try to push volume up are more likely to become inconsistent, but for a given level of consistency, higher volume is going to drive more adaptations. At least until you get to a point where you can’t absorb the stress.
Training peaks has a chart with suggested volume/TSS/CTL (see below). Even the “high volume” TR plans are close to low range (or even under if you look at the 6+ hour even category). That’s not a knock on TR, they have always been focused on time crunched athletes. But I do think it creates a warped perception of training volume if you are trying to be competitive.
Well, let us know when you hit 4 w/kg on low volume. I’d happily read about your journey.
What is low volume?
In 2022 I hit 4w/kg at the end of the 24th calendar week at cumulative hours for the year of 141, or 5.8 hours on average per week. Though I was out at the start, I did 6.9hours/week for 18 weeks leading up to that. But I was also very light, my raw power is unfortunately not that high.
I’m at 3.8w/kg (285W based on recent 40min FTP test at 75kg) and average about 5hr a week (biggest week since Nov, didn’t look any further back was 6hr15mins, with plenty of 4-5hr weeks…but rarely less than 3.5hr). That time is made of mix of running and cycling, usually 2 - 2.5hr cycling and 2-3 HR running a week. I’m 41. No idea how that compares but all my rides are specifically training and all indoors (I’ve done 2 non-race/event rides outdoors in last 18 months). Runs also focussing training usually…so low volume but focused. 5k time currently about 18:20ish
I’m on 3.94w/kg according to my TR FTP. That’s on say, 8-11 hours, at 48 years old. What’s tricky is that I have 2-3 kgs to spare, easily, maybe 4, and that wouldn’t affect my watts at all.
in my case 308W / 86Kg so loose 6Kg and up the power to 320W
which sounds fine until you realise I am 58 years young and that would require serious effort
up the power I can do but loosing 6Kg, i can tell you what would happen. I would give up desserts, eat egg whites for breakfast, give up booze and all those things
My weight would drop to (i guess - haven’t tried this for a couple of years) 82Kg and just stick there regardless of what I did
82Kg is 328W at 4Kg/W and that is starting to sound a bit science fiction
Basically, when I was in my forties I probably was on 4Kg/W but these days it’s not gonna happen 
At a much younger 47yrs and at 4.02 (319/175lbs), your description is not too far off. I don’t drink due to migraines, sweet’s aren’t really my thing (too much sugar already and on the bike) and oats for breakfast.
I’m 40 and have done 8-10hrs/week for the last 18 months. In January I was 295/72. Focused on diet and brought weight down to 68, power remains the same. After this week I’m done with deficits and get to work on the numerator side of the equation.
My n=1 updated for current progress.
46 here right now, 80kg +/- 1-2 kg, my weight doesn’t change more than that really. “Training Age” is 2 years, maybe plus 2-3 months. No background in endurance sports at all. But, some field sports, ski racing, pretty lean in the grand scheme of things. My Garmin has read me as low as 8-9% BF, but I’ve never had a Dexa and I’d guess 10-12% at my leanest. Full time desk job, but no kids and a lot of WFH.
I started on a little Zwift, and then TR Low Volume. Went from 3W/Kg when I started (240W), to 3.75 w/kg (300W) in a year.
Swapped to working with a coach, average volume over 10 hours, probably closer to 12-14 in season, peaking at 18 hours last year. FTP currently probably 330ish (getting close to 4.2 w/Kg) and I’ve still been making steady gains. I was 315 going into my base season in September, and I just finished a VO2 Block, going into Threshold training, so interested to see where I end up in a month or two when build is over and it’s on to race prep… I’ll probably also naturally lean down a couple Kg where I bet my peak for this season is 4.3-4.4 w/kg.
For me personally, I would have made 4w/Kg on low volume. I wouldn’t have had near the ability to express it and my endurance and fatigue resistance on a higher volume is much, much better.
(Side note - I am a little bit of a masochist. I am extremely consistent, and do almost all of my “build” workouts and intervals on the trainer. I’ll spend ~14 hours on it this week. Volume, fatigue resistance, skills, fartlek stuff increasingly transitions outside as weather gets nicer)
Interesting topic to read through.
31y/o, 74kg +/- 1-2 kg. “Training age” is ~ 2 years, came from being a smoker and regular drinker to no smokes and alcohol since now ~ 2 years. No background in sports for the last 10 years.
Started with unstructured training, went to some structure in 2023 and trying out a coach the last 8 months which I personally had a terrible experience. It was basically a 170€/m basic training plan. No feedback on intervals or really anything. Didn’t react to my workout notes afterwards.
Now back to training on my own.
Current FTP of around 230w which equals 3.06 - 3.1w/kg depending on weight. Training ~10 hours a week, wanting to increase it to 12-15 this year. Working on my weight to be around 70kg and increasing FTP to around 280 in the coming years. Maybe I’ll try a different coach sometime but for now I just ride a lot and include some core & strengh training in my routine.
40yr old male here, currently at 3.4w per kilo - 79kg 272ftp. Started cycling in 2021, unstructured, around 5/6hrs a week, not especially consistent.
Been using TR since late December 2023 so roughly 3 months so far. All low volume - general base 1, 2, 3 followed by sustained power build of which im in the 2nd half of.
Previous to that I did some work with a coach for around 4 months but felt wasn’t progressing well as FTP was derived from 5min max power. Was a few months of very hard work due to what i thought was an overinflated FTP, followed by 1 month off the bike entirely around November 2023.
Looking to add 1 outdoor endurance ride to LV soon as the weather is now brighter. Hoping to get somewhat close to 300w by August and drop a bit of weight, hopefully being in the 4w per kilo region.
Will update if I get there, but feeling fairly optimistic 
14h/wk is my estimate for the approximate minimum volume to produce annual improvements in the average person for several years, not indefinitely. So to the original question, what does it take? The answer is nobody knows, because individual starting point and individual response to training are quite different and are not necessarily correlated either. My best advice is to optimize training as best as possible, rest when needed, and just FAFO.
I think many of us struggle right there. 
Interesting. It caught my attention that there are lots of people with good numbers based on low-volume plans. And I think that is the ceiling for LV.
Achivieng 4/4.5/5w/kg really needs an increase in volume. Not necessarily intensity, but volume - just riding is enough.
I can put 700/800 TSS easily in summertime (riding outside), without getting fatigated. Doing this indoors is absolutely hard for me.
yep, after posting I thought about that “lots of people”.
Still, a 5h/week for 3w/kg isn’t bad.
The kilos I bet you can lose if you want to. The watts, maybe not.
Why don’t you try it and report back?
Agreed, I think some of my biggest gains every year come when I start doing long rides in the mountains outdoors once it isn’t cold anymore (I hate doing climbs when it’s cold, you sweat on the way up and freeze on the way down).
