Yes the variation between people, no matter how hard you filter the data, is for sure much bigger than the difference between plans.
Probably why TR does not promise us more than consistency will make us faster.
There isn’t much difference between the plans, they’ve said as much on the podcast. Consistently following a plan is more important than what plan you’re actually following. Assuming of course the plan you’re following increases the load progressively, includes recovery weeks, has an appropriate mix of intensity, etc. Which all the TR plans do.
I think most of what TR is focused on (and what their success is based on) is helping you achieve consistency. From the beginning the software was just really clean, easy to use and stable which made it simple to actually just do your workout. The podcast and community engaged people which helped increase motivation and therefore consistency. Adding outdoor workouts helped people to be more consistent as the weather improves and they want to ride outside (and again is really well executed in terms of how simple it is to actually follow an outdoor workout). Progression levels are a great way of keeping motivation high with regular little reward drops rather than having to wait 4-6 weeks for your next test and (hopefully) FTP bump. And keeping the workouts and plans varied helps keep things fresh (especially back in the days when people were doing all the workouts indoors).
If you were a highly motivated athlete you could probably get great results just by doing something like Seiler’s 4 x 8 minute intervals twice a week every week, with a long Z2 ride at the weekend, filling in the other days with Z1-2, taking a recovery week every 4 weeks and progressing naturally as you got stronger. But most people would find that very boring and repetitive and would lose motivation and consistency after a couple of blocks or less.
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I think this is hugely dependent on your size. For someone 60kg? Sure, they only need to get to 240. I’m a bit over 80kg and relatively lean. I could hit 80kg with some work, and I look shredded when I’m there. 4watt/kg would be 320 watts. I think I can eventually get there, but even after years of training, it’s still going to be a long slog.
The math is just significantly in the smaller persons favor on this. While absolute power is more important than watt/kg for racing, higher absolute powers are generally harder to achieve, and bigger size humans do not have a linear advantage in getting there.
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I’d recommend a checkup, and a stress test. I was merrily on my way to be a ‘super cyclist’, and was having issues with being completely wasted during training rides. Like can’t catch my breath, and just feeling gutted after a really tough ride. I also started feeling some chest pain and was told the story of a local doc who was a triathlete and was not feeling well while running, and actually took it seriously and saw another doctor, and found out that he had a partial block of a cardiac blood vessel, and needed it addresses. Post treatment, he was back to top form. My issue was a genetic narrow vessel in my heart, so even though I thought my top was still within reach, my body was already being pushed past its max. I was surprised, and had others look at the data, and they all agreed. My top was not where I wanted it to be, and I have had to live with that. I was surprised, but knew something didn’t feel right…
So, if you have been a big time trainer/athlete and don’t have any issues, good for you, and keep pushing, but if there are any issues while training, and you seek to increase your performance, get checked out. Especially MAMIL’s that are trying to be the next Tour de France star. Just saying… After all the tests, my cardiologist said I was in my top condition, and should not stop, but alter my plans and be more realistic. But, I don’t want to be… 
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This is great to hear. Were you supplementing the LV plan with any additional rides? I’m cycling around 6 hours a week and hovering around 4w/kg. I have quite a busy work/life schedule though and even 6 hours can be hard to fit in at times.
On pure LV I got sort of a brittle 4 w/kg. With some additional z2 rides (6-8 hours) my FTP didn’t increase a lot, but I noticed longer TTE and better repeatability. Doing more intensity next to LV results in too much fatigue in my case
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For me, it just took losing weight. Sort of.
I used TR since 2019, and made big gains. Started off the couch around 180W, now at around 330W. The fun part started around winter 2021. I did a lot of riding during lockdowns, but couldn’t really push past 300-310W. So I decided that I was going to double down in the winter. I did long SweetSpot alternating with a 3-week pure VO2 block. So usually 3-4 weeks of SweetSpot, recovery, 3 week VO2, recovery, repeat. I also ate like an animal. I tried to rationalize it that I was “fueling the work” and that the weight gain was healthy and fine as long as I was gaining watts on the bike (advice mostly from the podcast). I had gained a ton of weight though, hitting over 200 pounds. But by spring 2022 I broke through my plateau and hit an all time high of 340W FTP. So while my FTP went up, my W/kg stayed pretty much the same at around 3.8W/kg. I did well in flat races but quickly dropped off the back of the road tipped up.
So back to this year. I’ve been counting calories and running a deficit to lose weight. I cut out a lot of food and cut back on carbs during rides. To be honest, I never really felt any better by taking in 100g/hour on the bike. It never felt like it lowered RPE or gave me extra energy to push through. Fueling with 40g/hour vs 100/g feels the same to me. But the calories really add up. I also gave up the 1500-2000 calorie post ride binges. In the past, I’d do an hour and a half SweetSpot workout and easily scarf down double the calories post ride. Again, cutting back I feel the same energy wise.
So to the original question, I’m now sitting around 330W FTP at 78-79kg, so right around 4.2W/kg. Nothing crazy. But I feel better and stronger in climbs. And no difference on flat courses. So to finally push past the 4W/kg barrier, I just needed to drop the excess weight.
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Yeah, same for me – regardless of intensity, I seem always end up with same amount of liquid carbs (0.5L per ~2h). Can push down more, no discomfort but usually simply don’t bother, RPE does not change from this
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Do you think it makes any difference if you lose weight first and then try to gain watts, over gaining watts first and then trying to lose the weight?
I’ve heard it’s hard to do both at the same time, but not sure if you should prioritize one in front of the other?
i dont think its too ambitious at all. i think 4w/kg is achievable for almost anybody who trains hard and has decent nutrition. keep an eye on your macros. fuel your rides well and consume plenty of lean protein and clean carbs off the bike and stick to a structured training plan. you’re already at 3.3w/kg after just 8 months. structured training will help you get there. you are a good weight for it. im 6’4 and 90kg. 3.77w/kg ftp after about 20months of riding. i need an ftp of 360w to hit 4w/kg where as a 62kg guy like yourself needs 248w. life isnt fair lol. the more you ride and the harder you push, the better you will get at pushing through the pain barrier. You are training your mind as well as your body in unison. you can lift if you like but its not necessary. doing leg workouts in the off season and base season will help, especially with your top end. i do body weight and light dumbbell work on my days off the bike but only because i want to have some toning rather than being super skinny. i say within a year, 1.5yrs, you’ll be there
That is a good question that is probably above my pay grade. The way I did it was gain weight and watts, then maintain the watts as I lost weight. But it wasn’t planned really, I just wanted to gain watts and I got lazy with my diet. Looking back at my training and weight, I don’t think I lost watts from losing weight. My winter training ('22/'23) wasn’t the greatest and I wasn’t anywhere near my best when I made the decision and effort to lose weight. So even staying the same weight, I don’t think I would have even reached my previous best (340W) based on my winter of training. Losing weight is tough, so I would guess that trying to gains watts while maintaining is the easiest, rather than trying to lose the weight down the road. Basically, I wouldn’t gain weight with the plan to lose it later, just maintain and gain fitness if that makes sense.
Consistancy is key, in a year I went from an ftp of 230W tot 307W (61.6 kg) with an average volume of 12h/week
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My N=1 - My highest FTP each season happens in conjunction with my lowest weight. As much as I like the idea of dropping winter weight during easier “base” work early in the season, it seldom shakes out that way. Maybe I don’t have enough discipline/motivation on diet with big events still out in the future, but I also think it’s a function of intensity. Adding some intensity and doing a lot of climbing outdoors seems to always shed weight for me, along with an increase in FTP. It’s like the body knows it’s time to be lean and light when I’m riding/training harder. Bro science and all…
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Yes, it’s hard to lose wait and increase strength/power/performance at the same time. To lose weight, you need to under-fuel, so you get tired and can’t hit training targets. I’m sure there are skilled athletes out there who can do both, but for most of us, pick one or the other for a given block of time.
Personally, I’d add watts first. Given my current fitness level (mid-pack) and weight (slim but nowhere near 10% body fat), I can add watts easier than I can lose weight. For somebody who is heavier, the math might tilt the other way. In the example below, I’d have to lose 5lbs while maintaining current FTP to end up with a higher w/kg than adding even 6W to my FTP.
Say your 68kg (150lb) with a 250W FTP. That’s 3.67w/kg.
Add 2.5% (6W) to the FTP is 256 and 3.76w/kg.
Add 5% to (12W) the FTP is 262 or 3.86w/kg.
OR
Remove 1kg (2.2lbs) and you’d have 3.73w/kg.
Remove 2kg (5lbs) and you’d have 3.78w/kg.
Of course, my highest FTP (280) and highest W/kg (4.25) has always been at my lowest weight (66kg). But I was never trying to lose weight - the loss was just a byproduct of training more consistently (and not a change in diet).
I can’t believe it’s been almost 2 years! Maybe a fun update for people to read about:
It’s now March 2024, and I’ve logged just over 1000hrs on the bike and 13,967.2mi and 895,928 ft of elevation gain.
The longest week i’ve had was 36hr+ hours, 5 days in the Alps averaging 100miles and 10k ft of climbing a day for 5 days. (crazy to read…). These were very very hard weeks. And I’m barely a human by the end of the trip.
My FTP is now ~235, at 63kg. So ~3.6w/kg. I think its actually a really low increase in FTP based on how much i’ve trained. But how I feel after a long day is completely different. I stopped doing ramp tests because I think it was giving me unrealistic FTP…actually I kind of just stopped doing FTP tests because I sort of know the power I can hold for 40min-1hr now. TTE now vs before is completely different, FTP isn’t everything!
I’ve gone through periods of time where I didn’t eat nearly enough off of the bike and felt what Nate describes as permanent DOMS. It was horrible and I didn’t know why. I had a few sessions with a nutritionist and she has helped me get my health back on track. I gained almost 5lbs in the span of a month but now I feel MUCH better even if my w/kg didn’t went down a bit.
I’ve gone from using TR, to using other training plans, to back to TR, and now I have a coach. The coach costs WAYYYYYY more than TR, but I enjoy what I get out of the experience. I think this will be my last “maximum effort” year on the bike, after this will start to focus on starting a family, and go back to TR 
still trying to reach the 4w/kg goal for fun, but it’s not something I think about anymore.
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Hey, thanks for the update. Can I ask (apologies if you have already answered this) are you male or female?
male
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My FTP is now ~235, at 63kg. So ~3.6w/kg. I think its actually a really low increase in FTP based on how much i’ve trained.
Thanks for the update!
I know people here will disagree, but 3-3.5 w/kg is probably where most “average” cyclists peak for their FTP. 4+ w/kg requires either significantly more time in the saddle or some sort of genetic advantage. When I put in 10-12 hours/week, my FTP was maybe 8% higher than when I put in 3-4 hours/week. Bottom line is, don’t think your performance is low because it’s certainly not .
Also, for the coach, make sure they’re used to training people like you. I’ve had several coaches, all but my last coach were completely at a loss on how to train the average person and kept burning me out on what their elite athletes were doing. I had one coach assign me 90 minutes @ 95% FTP, just one long interval, because their star athlete was doing the same workout…talk about burning out!
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I’m just about back there for the first time in a year, and have worked out how to get (myself) there.
For me, it’s volume - it’s as simple as that. If/when I can string together 3-4 months of riding 10-12 hour weeks consistently, with a 4hr plus ride every week and the odd 15-16 hour total week, every metric improves: FTP, LT1, HR at any given power. Yes, some intensity helps, but I haven’t found it the be all and end all and what type of intensity doesn’t really seem to matter*.
I don’t know why that’s surprising - most coaches have been saying that for years - but trial and error for 3-4 years has shown that for me, it’s pretty much just hours in the saddle. Not necessarily sexy or exciting (or even actionable for the time pressed) but it’s what works.
*I have a gut feeling that a few weeks of threshold can ‘kickstart’ my fitness after a period of lower volume, which then helps to make the build back up a bit easier, but it’s no more than a theory, and in any case, n=1
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Just keep training smart in a fun and sustainable way and see what happens. After less than 3 years of training, there are almost certainly significant gains yet to be had. It’s a marathon, not a sprint. It took me about 10 years of pretty regular training and body comp changes to hit 4w/kg (at 50). Some folks respond quickly to training, but for many it’s an extremely slow progression once you grab the low hanging watts during the first couple years. Not a sport for folks looking for quick gratification.
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