I would kindly request that you take your concerns about the stock market to forums within the financial community. I tried to answer your questions about the purpose of the stock market, which I presumed were genuine, as a backdrop to the fundamental discussion about Peloton’s IPO and TrainerRoad. I do not see a dialogue about the merits of the stock market nor its participants adding value to the discussion. Of course, if you wish to get back to the core discussions, you are very welcome to continue to participate.
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Not trying to derail it; I’ve more than said my piece. I find the idea of unregulated trading and capitalism immoral. I’ll leave it at that.
Enjoy the thread 
Dark web just means behind a log in and not crawled by google. So TR app, email, WhatsApp, etc.
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So you’re saying that buying and selling stocks would still be allowed but every company has to be their own market maker. That sounds just like the stock market, but worse. I would suggest you invest time in understanding how things work and the reasons for their existence before forming a radical opinion about them.
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One option that nobody seems to consider would be a shift from a simple “held less than 1 year → ordinary income, held more than 1 year → long term capital gains” tax policy. Perhaps to something like “the maximum of (100% - [number of days held]) or 15%” as the tax rate for capital gains.
Daytraders and high-frequency arbitrage shops would be out of business instantly, but would the rest of the world care? (I know folks will scream “They provide much-needed liquidity!”. I disagree.)
I absolutely value the stock market and the market makers who facilitate it, but daytraders and the shops that frontrun the market simply do not add value. The vast majority of our society would shed exactly zero tears if daytrading and high-frequency trading just… went away.
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Tell that to the millions of people with a 401k and other savings invested in the stock market.
On topic, TR could benefit in a few years from cycling/fitness addicted people who need an outlet if/when PTON can’t hold their business together.
TR’s group rides are obviously not the same as a HI NRG! PTON session, but it’s still a source of connection. They’ll also have to dish out more money for a trainer and bike…so the flip of customer base might not be that great in numbers.
All will be revealed in time! 
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Thanks.
I’d rather talk to all of the people that work for jobs that had pensions eliminated and their retirements are now subject to the whims of the market with their 401ks.
Ok that is a fair point. I dont necessarily stand down from my ‘radical’ opinions, but i fully admit relative to other things, I’m fairly ignorant of modern economics. It just isnt something I’m interested in.
But, I dare say, if I really started to dig into things, my views would likely become MORE radical.
I suppose if you go seeking out sources that would only confirm your pre-existing conclusions that is a likely outcome. If every time you research something you develop more extreme versions of your original opinions you should change the way you are researching things.
No doubt. And I dare say at the very least I know how to find reputable sources of information. And I also, while still considering myself ignorant, HAVE taken a smattering of economic classes.
That said - a very good point, and one everyone should consider whenever looking into becoming informed kn a topic.
One of my fav sources is intelligent and groovy guy (and ex-Ironman) Cullen Roche @ Pragmatic Capitalism.
I agree with his statement that the current system is not perfect, but it’s the best we currently have.
How come you didn’t make this post when it was at $18/share in early March (6 months later)? You’re cherry picking your data points to fit a narrative.
But yes I agree, don’t follow advice from strangers on the internet. If that were the case, we would have all filled our basements with physical gold and silver, waiting for a total market meltdown while most of the indexes reach new highs.
There’s also the argument, as someone mentioned, that the indexes may have already baked-in future gains, which means the next ~10-years are going to be very flat in terms of positive returns (V vs U).
Just as FTP gains are not always linear, so too are market gains/losses.
Yep. The Shiller PE10 is a market valuation indicator that puts current valuations into perspective:
Current valuations are 3rd highest ever. Although this exaggerates things somewhat, as this metric does not adjust for prevailing interest rates, which are at historic lows. Same takeaway though - returns in the market are going to be low for the next 10+ years.
I’d counter by noting that mkts always do this. The valuation 101 approach of DCF (and most valuation approaches are derivative of this method) takes into account a perpetuity / terminal value. However mkts move based on the new information in the <5yr time frame which on a discounted basis is a key driver of value (40-50%)
In the current case people are valuing the next 5yrs as if nothing happened. There is no cost of uncertainty and default risk or material impairment of business model isn’t relevant, eg volatility is being under priced.
In my mind it’s more a reaction to the Fed and their self appointed mandate to make mkts go up vs traditionally inflation or employment.
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I wish this was understood by the media (and the public at large). Almost mandatory scare quotes when you see a news story about the dark web these days
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Today Peloton has issued a recall for their Tread+ and Tread treadmills after initially refusing to do so despite injuries and even one child’s death. The CEO issued an apology along with the recall.
Today it’s also been reported that the Peloton API exposes customer data which should be private.
Peloton’s stock reached an all-time high of $171.09 in mid January around 3 months ago. Now it is around $82.
Cinco de Mayo has not been friendly to Peloton this year.
I bought it at $20 and sold at $100. Kicked myself for quite a while there, but feeling better now. Buying opportunity soon?