Wow. This new “Guide” thing is just…wow. I know they’re doing it because all their subscribers are buying the Tonal, but this isn’t competition for Tonal. It’s competition for…a mirror. I just don’t understand this at all.
Here is the official release from Peloton: https://investor.onepeloton.com/news-releases/news-release-details/peloton-introduces-peloton-guide-first-connected-strength
I think Gizmodo wrapped up my thinking well.
“If you subscribe to the Peloton app or already have a $39/month all-access subscription for using with a Bike or Tread, you already have access to Peloton’s whole strength-training library. And that’s what makes the Guide a little weird. The casual weight-lifter doesn’t want to spend close to $500 just for form analysis, and folks who really care about form probably work out with a trainer in person at a gym. Unlike Tonal or Tempo, Peloton’s new home workout device doesn’t come with any equipment, so you’ll have to bring your own weights. You’re essentially paying for the Guide’s Movement Tracker and Self Mode—and whether those features are worth hundreds of dollars remains to be seen.”
I agree with the conclusion, but not the analysis . . .
Yes, it does remain to be seen whether the Peloton Guide can: a) produce the desired results and b) that users feel that the price tag is worth the results.
But [IMO] No, the stated assumption about casual weight-lifter not likely to care about form sounds absurd. What person who works out with weights doesn’t want to know how to use weights properly whether to become stronger or to avoid injury?
There are many reasons that the casual weight-lifter may not go to the gym to pursue proper form, from embarrassment, to finances, to time. Yes, they can turn to YouTube and Peloton to watch and try to emulate, but there is no direct feedback. To me, this seems like an innovative idea. Time will tell whether it is successful for the reasons I mention above.
So a camera to watch you and analyze form for $500 plus $12 a month? Instead of a $25 mirror you hang on the wall where you workout? Absurd.
Arguing against a long.
Perhaps. TBD. At the size of Peloton (large) they probably did a fairly large Beta test on both the functionality and pricing. So there was clearly enough data to suggest to them that the product and pricing would work. As I said, time will tell whether you assumption is correct (i.e. absurd), whether the opposite is true, or something in the middle.
It’s interesting that a bunch of reviews didn’t come out immediately like usually happens. I found myself wondering why. Maybe people like Ray and Des and Lama don’t see strength in their wheelhouse? I’m looking forward to more info and reviews. As someone who was looking for a reason to buy low and go long, I’d love someone to show something that makes me think I’m wrong. At this point, it just feels like the PS4 Dance game my daughter played 5 years ago.
FWIW: The field of AI-based machine learning systems is progressing rapidly and fast growing. TR’s AT is one example. But closer to home to the Peloton Guide type product, there are systems developed for shopping stores that track users body and eye motion. The hypothesis is that shelf location matters to revenue and profits. Of course, the pandemic hit and put all of this stuff on hold.
But more generally speaking, the field of biofeedback devices with AI-based backend computational analysis is growing rapidly (take a look at Oura’s O3 and the scientific paper behind the sleep algorithm that will be introduced in 2022 to get a sense of another product using such approach).
As for Ray, my guess is that he wasn’t included as part of the Beta/reviewer list or that he just hasn’t come out with his “first look” yet as he did for the O3.
When was the last time you were in a gym?
Mid summer: pre-delta. Going back after Thanksgiving with 90+ year old in-laws. Why?
Because gyms are full of people working our with weights improperly…both serious and casual.
Yes, true. And for those that don’t know what they are doing, some are willing to do something about it (e.g. hire a trainer or try to learn from those that do) and some don’t [we have all seen the reckless ones that could hurt themselves or others in the process].
I think the questions for Peloton include:
Given all the loyal Peloton subscribers, it might be even simpler:
. . . You might be right!
Those people are all buying Tonal. It’s spreading like wildfire through the Peloton community.
My Strava feed has Peloton workouts like this one just posted:
That guy is fast out on the road and in CX. Some podiums. Forgot why he bought it over a trainer. Probably to share with his wife.
He isn’t the only fast rider I know posting Peloton rides on Strava, and then killing it out on the road.
As pandemic sales wane, Peloton turns to gaming to keep its momentum - Washington Post, might be pay walled, but reading in incognito mode usually works for me.
Good article…interesting how they parallel some of the same challenges for Zwift, although I think they face less of a post-COVID drop than Peloton.
At the end of the day, both Peloton and Zwift share the same competitive advantage - their user base and sense of community. Given that, it makes sense for Peloton to look to create some version of Zwift for their platform (although I have doubts about something like Lanebreak). They could even decide that they want to target enthusiast cyclists as a potential, parallel market.
The next few months and years will be interesting to watch.
ETA - one important caveat…the competitive advantage enjoyed by both Peloton and Zwift is not a unique or proprietary advantage. As a result, it can be emulated by other competitors, assuming they can find a way to build a large, enthusiastic base. But given the flattening curve for both platforms, this will likely require converting Zwift / Peloton users to other platforms. Not necessarily an easy task, especially for Peloton competitors given the hardware costs required.
I had the same reaction. It is not surprising that Peloton’s rate of growth would slow from the slowing of the pandemic. However, naysayers predictions that they would collapse have proven false as we migrate into a hybrid world. They also have large untapped potential, but perhaps not realizable at the pandemic pace.
Like all consumer electronic devices, they need to expand to keep users engaged. Imagine for a moment that TR did not expand into AT? It’s true with Apple Watches, iPhones, etc. etc.
I was aware of Peloton’s device expansion and activity expansion, but had not thought about their expansion into gaming or even just greater gamifying of their existing content. But it makes sense. In the world of block chain technology, Ethereum has rocketed passed BitCoin in terms of volume of transactions. And, perhaps of no surprise, the #1 app driving that growth is gaming (#2 is NFT; #3 is crypto).
The two obvious return to growth strategies:
As an example of the first bullet, neighbors across the street bought a Peloton bike earlier this year and last week took delivery of a treadmill. Dad/daughter are heavily into soccer and general fitness. In my mind they are an outlier buying two expensive units that require taking over part of the garage, but who knows.