So is TR just trying to further confuse everyone? How hard is it to do a few short duration max efforts?
Of the several coaches I’ve spoken with, none of them prescribe training based on submax performance.
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Wondering they’re hoping to estimate actual FTP or predicting a Ramp Test result…
@Bagz According to Instagram story, you’d have a button on ramp test date that you could click and TR would estimate your FTP (based on recent training/AI/ML) and you could theoretically choose to skip Ramp test and accept/ignore FTP estimate.
In theory it could be very accurate using near maximal intervals depending on which workouts you’ve done. For example, a lot of people training at their “FTP” would be pretty well near max for a 20min over under or 100-105% Threshold session.
There appears to be some pretty accurate modeling using single efforts.
You’re right though that it’s best accuracy will be from maximal efforts.
I’m really interested to see what it says, and excited to try it. I’ll be very curious whether the FTP estimations line up more with overstated FTP to build into, or longer TTE type FTP.
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It does on an aggregate level, and although the error margin will be significant for individuals it can provide useful guidance.
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It doesn’t really matter.
In conjunction with progression levels and AT, it doesn’t matter if your ftp is not within 5%. Within a few weeks, AT will get you the right training. And that’s in the end all that matters.
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I saw that too. Nate mentioned it also takes outside rides into account
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Yes! Thanks for mentioning that important detail.
I feel like the correct answer to this question is, yes they have already developed it and it is called the ramp test.
Too bad there aren’t other easier, more reliable ways of estimating a functional threshold that don’t rely on fancy buzzwords. Something, something 7 deadly sins. Oh wait…#6 sounds familiar. Could be what TR is trying to do. Nothing new there.
Using the ramp test and some arbitrary fixed percentage as your threshold is as bad as using 220-age for max heart rate. Even using gas exchange, I get a range of percentages for RER around 1.0 and not some fixed percentage.
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There is no perfect FTP test 
edit: except an expensive lab test.
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Even an expensive lab test is far from perfect.
The potential benefit is there. The estimated FTP (eFTP) from Intervals.ICU is I find actually pretty jolly accurate, the trick is the recent-ness of the efforts used etc.
I didn’t see the note about it using Outside rides, that’s good news, though not surprising if we assume it’s using similar modeling to existing platforms and then using their own workout data to maximize stimulus vs compliance.
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Would have been cool to have it today since I did my ramp test this afternoon. I actually hit the estimated ftp from Intervals within 3 watts and had a 20% increase in ftp!
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I’m looking forward to seeing this in action, After 11yrs of using power I have a pretty good feeling for FTP and usually tests end up right where I estimate it to be. It would be fascinating to see what TR is using to get to the numbers they come up with.
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I’m really curious to see how this will work, since I assume many people are using completely different power meters indoors and out. Will it give you a choice to select?:
Indoor
Outdoor
Combined
Extremely fucking hard 
.
Of course, they don’t. I don’t think anyone has before because of data limitations.
We had ML look at data and tie it to ramp test results. We can train it based on the actual results and get a prediction score.
Then after that, AT can zero you in further (which is needed anyways, even for maximal effort testing).
But this is cool because you don’t have testing stress or have to worry about an “off day”. You can just add another hard workout instead of the ramp test.
But of course, you don’t have to do it if you don’t want to.
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This is a can of worms, as FTP means different things to different people. It’s also a REALLY wide range if you listen to Coggan (40-70 minutes). But sometimes he says 40k TT…which is also probably 40-70 minutes depending on the athlete.
Our goal is to get you into workouts at the correct intensity for you. That’s what this is trying to do.
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Exactly!
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This is glorious to see you say! FTP is a fairly vague definition by the inventor as a proxy for a precise physiological response, and has morphed into an even more vague concept in the community.
The beauty of TR is not having to get into that quagmire anymore. The last part of your post is the money statement and you and the team are doing a hell of a good job.
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According to some people, the only “pure” FTP test is a 1 hour TT effort 
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