Yep, this. Peloton is targeting people that would otherwise spend $30 per class on SoulCycle. Spin class people are not really concerned about their performance on the bike. Very, very few people are likely using Peloton with an eye towards racing. The $4B valuation is due to the fact that this segment is really big, they have a very high HHI and Peloton is good at what it does.
Zwift, in my opinion, is primarily targeted at folks that would rather be out on a club ride with their buddies. The “Trevor Connors” of the world, if you will. They’re likely riding inside due to time constraints, poor weather or safety concerns. The gameification is the big draw and whatever training plans/coaching within the system is more of a cherry on top. I’d say it’s probably 50/50 on users that are primarily driven by performance gains vs. general fitness. A lot their users are into cycling/triathlon for the healthy lifestyle, rather than trying to podium at their A race. This is still a pretty big pot of people, but not nearly as big as the spin class types.
TR is targeted almost entirely towards users seeking performance gains primarily. I suspect the big split in the user base is between the part time users that use it as a winter training/bad weather tool and those that train almost entirely indoors year round. This is the smallest pot of people, but TR users likely ride A LOT more and are willing to spend a lot more of their income on their hobby.