Regarding a long event (12+ hours) is it a valuable strategy to attempt to mimic the winner’s IF (Intensity Factor) as a pacing strategy for myself? So if the winner finished in 10 hours at an IF of 0.59, is it reasonable for me to pace at the same IF knowing that my race will be 12+ hours? Should it be less, 0.58, 0.55? Is it better to be safe and start at a lower IF then adjust at mile 90 if need be?
For context this is a MTB event (Marji Gesick) of 103-108 miles, 12,000+ feet of climbing, and 85-90% technical single track. The winner’s IF last year was 0.59% for a weighted average (NP) of 226w. If I were to match that IF my NP pace would be 175w.
Last year’s course: