Great news, I’ve been moved into the Orange corral! Should mean I have a better shot of getting with quicker groups vs being in Brown
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I’m looking for pacing advice entering my first Leadville 100 race, and 2nd ever mountain bike race. Some Key points:
Currently 3.4 Watts/kg living at 6200 ft.
I just rode the course: Half two weekends ago (Start to powerline and back), then the other half (Pipeline and Columbine and back) last weekend. My total time for those two training rides was 10:30 hours.
On the first ride, I felt like I was taking it pretty easy, staying in Z2 as much as possible, and only had to increase my RPE the last 1-2 hours.
On the second training ride I pushed it a bit more than the first (still mostly upper Z2), but was having difficulty maintaining power 5 hours into the ride.
So I’m wondering about how to use this information to pace my race. Obviously, conditions will be different for the race–I’ll have a nice two-week taper, proper carb load etc. Part of me wants to shoot for a time similar to the total of those two training rides (10:30), but part of me thinks it would be better to be more conservative–if I was having difficulty toward the end of these 5 hour rides, how could I hold that power for 10+ hours during the race?
Any thoughts would be appreciated.
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Race day will likely be a good bit faster compared to a solo effort of similar watts/pacing. Besides drafting, the racing line is often better established and smoother. I did a solo effort on the first ~80 miles of the course back in 2020 and I was almost an hour off my race day pace at similar NP. And then add on your taper, carb load, race day motivation, etc. and I’d personally lean toward pacing at least as fast as what you did on your 2 previous rides. I assume you have a power meter based on how you described the efforts and I think high Z2 is a good overall target for NP. For me, the key to pacing is figuring out wattage targets on the climbs. Climbing at altitude-adjusted sweet spot is extremely uncomfortable for me (breathing harder than threshold at sea level), but I’ve learned that I can sustain it. My NP for the entire race will be high Z2, a mix of climbing at sweet spot, coasting, and trying to stay near high-ish Z2 any time I’m pedaling. That’s all altitude adjusted and that’s a very individual thing. And those target wattages get extremely hard for me to hold for the last 2-3 hours of the race.
Another thing to consider is the goal/priorities of your race. If trying for best possible result, it’s always a risk/reward thing and you’ll want to race close to the edge (with the risk of blowing up and finishing slower). If the main concern is executing well and making sure you finish with a buckle, I think you have plenty of fitness and you could pace very conservative and still have lots of time to spare. Honestly, if you did the entire course in 10:30 in a non-race situation, I wouldn’t discount the possibility of finishing in under 9 (big buckle) if everything goes right. If you care about the big buckle thing, you might consider a 9 hour pacing strategy to start and you can always back down if it’s not feeling sustainable during the race. Even if you blow yourself up a bit, it won’t likely keep you from finishing under the cutoff (just make for a tougher/longer day vs. pacing easier). Either approach is valid and you could certainly regret either of them depending on results. I generally err on the side of aggressive early pacing for anything other than a pure TT, but I acknowledge that the safest advice is to go out conservative.
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Well, after driving clear across country solo again, I made it into town yesterday. Did a recovery pace cruise along Pipeline today, but for the most part just hanging out and getting used to the altitude.
The weather though, damn have I been looking forward to this after the summer we’ve been having…
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Okay folks, I did a pre-ride of Turquoise Lake CCW (outbound) and came back on the boulevard. Took my time, took a lot of pics, but boy howdy Powerline is no joke. Huge rut down the middle most of the way and basically one line courtesy of the Stage Race this last weekend.
That whole loop has some chonk to it. I was wearing the light sensitive Tfosi glasses today and they were less than awesome when it comes to contrast under the canopy. Fold in the chonk and I made more than a couple of less than great choices but managed to avoid consequences
Starting in Brown I can tell exactly where the walking will start on St. Kevin’s and even if everyone stays right, there’s not much line to the left. I’m pretty resigned to just staying fueled & hydrated with a target of a negative split. After seeing Powerline Outbound, I 100% understand what everyone is saying about it being almost a slap in the face inbound. Holy Shirt.
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Thanks Grwoolf! I think I’ll be shooting for 10:30 and see how it goes. My main goal as a first timer is sub-12, but I also want to know I have it close to my all. I won’t really know until I do it, but nice to have your opinion. I do fear blowing up, but I think I need to embrace the uncertainty at this point. That’s part of the fun!
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Sounds a lot like when I did it. Will be interesting to see if it’s better or worse than I remember.
Good point on the glasses. I might just go with the lighter shade that I have and live with things being a bit too bright at times.
Edit - Just had some SIS Beta Fuel arrive to try out. The sachets are massive! I feel like once that’s in a bottle there’s barely going to be any water left.
If anyone needs a timing sheet with goal times etc… I put this together. Fits perfectly on the top tube. This is for my stretch goal of 8H. I stole some of this from someone in an older Leadville thread on here. Easy to overlay your own times, power targets, etc… Really came in handy for me last year.
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Love it, what weight are the power targets based on?
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This is for me at 180 lbs. The power targets are somewhere around my .75 IF adjusted for altitude which is pushing the pace (maybe too much)
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I did the stage race this past weekend in 8:13 and learned quite a lot. Trying to piece together a sub 9:00 seems doable on the one day but possibly a stretch.
My plan is to pace the steep sections of all the climbs, (ie St Kevins first mile, goat trail, all of powerline) very similarly to what I did during the stage race and conserve more energy on the steady climbing sections (the 5-7% pitches) as well as the ‘flats’ from powerline to columbine and back. I was forced during the race to take the steep sections a little easier due to traffic but definitely opened it up more than I would on the one day for the less steep slopes where it was much easier to maneuver around people.
I also lost time on all the descents but I went as fast as I felt comfortable. I probably have 7-8 minutes I could gain from just doing average descent times on powerline(lost ~2 minutes), columbine (lost ~4 minutes), and sugarloaf (lost ~2 minutes) but it’s just not a spot I feel comfortable so I’ll just chalk that up as a loss that I won’t make up.
If everything goes to plan this strategy will add roughly 4x5 minutes to the climbs, 2x5 minutes to the ‘flats’, and then 10 minutes of additional time focusing on eating more (slows me down a little) plus aid station stops.
If anyone is thinking of doing the stage race in the future, I highly recommend it. Was a lot of fun and had its own challenges. I felt okay day 1, terrible day 2, and amazing on day 3.
FYI, my climb times according to Strava for the ‘major’ climbs were:
St Kevin’s to road - 31:52
Leadville 100 sugarloaf outbound - 31:52 (exact same)
2021 Leadville Columbine Climb - 1:19:25
Leadville Powerline Climb - 39:41
Torqouise Lake Road Climb - 23:31 (also has a big downhill at the start but seems to be the main Strava segment)
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Very similar times to when I did it. Aside from Powerline, where I had to stop due to cramp.
Here’s how I paced last year, all IF based off of my Altitude Adjusted FTP:
St Kevin’s - 90%
Mayqueen to Sugarloaf Summit - 83%
Powerline to Columbine - 78%
Columbine - 75% (78% without the walking sections)
Columbine to Powerline - 71% (Lots of drafting, taking it easier)
Powerline - 74% after the hike-a-bike at the bottom (Too conservative)
Mayqueen to Carter Summit - 86%
Boulevard - 94%
Mayqueen all the way to the finish - 84%
Full course - 76%
I took it a little too conservatively at some sections in the middle, I think my climbing target in general will be 80-85% on the day. Maybe a little higher for St. Kevin’s and Sugarloaf.
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Well it’s a good thing I brought a spare set of wheels as I gave the rear on my “A” set a good enough whack to knock it out of true and show some deformation on the rim in a couple of places on the drive side. that’s going to be an expensive repair when I get home. I wouldn’t have ended my race, but sure would have put a handy cap on it.
Those climbing times are solid. Comparing them to my times in the 100 (for the 2 years I broke 9), the first couple splits are pretty close and from columbine on your times are significantly faster. That said, I’d be cautious if you are assuming you’ll be able to hit close to the numbers in the 100 that you were able to hit in the stage race (for the later climbs). Even if you pace a little easier, you’ll still have a lot more work in the legs when you hit that later climbs. By the time you hit the goat trail, you’ll have over 3.5 hours in your legs, and likely 5.5+ hours when you hit powerline. I’ve heard a lot of people advocate for even pacing at leadville, but I struggle to find anyone that actually executes the race this way (after much strava stalking). I’m sure there are exceptions out there and maybe it’s a better approach, I just don’t want to risk getting caught up in traffic trying it. There is a difference between a gradual drop throughout the day and blowing up. My pacing plan has me climbing st. kevins at ~95%, road/haggermans/sugarloaf at ~90%, columbine will start around 90%, but will drop as fatigue/altitude increase. I try to keep it above 85%, but once we hit the goat trail, my power becomes very surgy and I’m just riding by feel and trying to stay within myself. Powerline on the way back is similar. Much of it requires significant surges and then recovery, rinse and repeat. It’s a bit of survival mode on some of those sections and I’m not too concerned about power. On the final road climb, I’m trying to hold 85%+, but it’s whatever is left at that point and effort is dependent on where I stand on time, the weather, how I feel, etc. At the start of that road climb, I’ll risk going hard (ie blow up, cramps, etc.) if I’m tight on time, but might get more conservative if I have a sub 9 (or whatever time target) comfortably in hand. All those percentages are based on altitude adjusted FTP (18% reduction from my sea level FTP).
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I rode from bottom of St. Kevins to bottom of powerline and back today. The course is in really good shape and I got several PR’s. I did have a minor crash for my first time ever on the leadville course, got caught in one of those deep rain ruts coming down powerline and couldn’t get myself out before coming to a stop. A bit of a slow motion OTB, glad it wasn’t at speed and still ended up with a nice thigh bruise. My fault, just picked a bad line. Even with the wreck, I ended up with a solid time down powerline, it’s in pretty good shape after the stage race. And I’m getting used to the higher travel on my new bike. PR coming down sugarloaf and I didn’t even feel like I was pushing that hard.
Also, I often post about the leadville climbs being “math problems” because they are so easy to predict based on watts. I was reviewing previous efforts today and here’s a good illustration of my top 5 times up St. Kevins. Different course conditions, wind, different tires, different traffic, different bikes, but on all of these steep climbs it’s primarily watts and lbs = time. Basically all attempts are at similar watts and all times within 30 seconds. Rider and bike weight within a few lbs.
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This is my toptube effort in kms for a 10:30 goal. I will decide which colour is best when I pop them on my bike. OTB is Outward Bound and not “Over the Bars” I hope!
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I should probably print something before I leave, but I doubt I’ll get round to it if I’m honest.
I was doing a training ride around Breck today, and got a giant screw through my rear tire!!!
For those of you coming into town make sure you bring spares because none of the shops have XC stuff
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Add me to the club who had a mild fall today. Not paying attention on Pipeline, loose over hard, leaning in around a corner and ended up on my side with a little gravel rash.
I will say I found myself sliding more than I expected and it was really dry. To the point I slipped around in some faster corners on Pipeline I wouldn’t have expected to. I was on my Ray / Ralph combo but will be back on Race Kings starting tomorrow.
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