Watching people interpret the Rorschach test of Keegan’s finish placing is kind of fascinating. People see the same result and some of them say, “See, I told you he couldn’t hack it at the world tour level!” And others say, “See, I told you he could!”
I think it eliminates the extreme perspectives. He won’t stroll right in and compete for prestigious world tour wins. But I also think it’s clear that the people who were like, “He couldn’t carry water bottles for the guys who carry water bottles on the world tour,” were also wrong. Plenty of other guys who are sometimes in the mix at world tour races finished around Keegan, not all of them did tons of work first, and they all have more experience on the road than he does.
Is he going to win Grand Tours or monuments? Almost certainly not. Could he carve out a career in the world tour as a guy who’s sometimes on domestique duty and sometimes gets the freedom to chase stages or one day races that are suited to him? Seems plausible. But, as others have pointed out, it would take a lot of work, and a huge lifestyle change, and a likely significant pay cut.
It doesn’t seem like he has the natural talent of guys like Pidcock, WvA, or MvdP, who can just jump back and forth between disciplines and stay at the very highest level of all of them. But I wonder if maybe he could carve out something more along the lines of what Lachlan Morton and Alex Howes had where he spends part of the year in Europe and part of the year racing the big gravel and endurance mtb races in the US. From an outside perspective, it seems like there might be value to sponsors to get U.S. gravel or mtb fan eyes on world tour races and vice-versa. But it also seems like it might be tough logistically. Would he stay with Santa Cruz for US racing? Does that mean he could only go to teams that ride Cervelo, Focus, or Raleigh? Could he keep his other sponsorships (Monster, Blenders, etc.)?
I don’t know the answers, but as someone who enjoys following Keegan’s racing, I hope he finds a way to do what he finds rewarding, whatever that happens to be.