I mostly want to do patagonia (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YH4uS30nILY) and similar, which… my Ultimate might actually be able to handle, but not confidently (and not without swapping pedals). The best amateurs I know around here are on Crux, so massive tire clearance isn’t necessary to handle a lot of fun trails.
As far as going straight to a hardtail, I will never use a mountain bike as a bad-weather commuter… my commute is already 1-1.5 hours long on my race bike, and I’m not looking to make it longer. And I’m a cat 4 woman who rides with cat 2 men. I don’t need to slow them down more than I already do. I also have access to a mountain bike I can use if really called for. Maybe someday I’ll get my own, but not this round.