Yet another thread on AI FTP

Training
1

I’ve been training really consistently for the last 4 months for an event next week.

I feel strong. I’m getting PBs on Strava segments. I’m going long distance. Climbs I used to struggle with I’m now getting up better. I feel like I’m making progress.

BUT my AI FTP keeps dropping. I’ve noticed that if I say a ride was ‘easy’ AI FTP goes up but if ‘hard’ or ‘very hard’ the AI FTP dips.

So to the question: how much does the subjective effort feed into the AI prediction? It seems like a lot and so (effectively) you’re guessing.

Or am I misunderstanding something?

Cheers! C

2

I’d be happy to take a closer look at your training history and let you know what I see.

Let me know if those details are okay to discuss here in this thread.

The fact that you’re feeling stronger and setting PBs is a really good initial sign, though. :+1:

3

Thanks. What do you need to see? A few weeks of training?

4

Eddie works for TR, he can see it all. He’s just asking if it’s ok for him to share what he finds here or if you would rather discuss it privately.

5

Ah - I see. Eddie: thanks for the offer. Can you please contact me via my email (same one as on my account). I am happy for you to look at my data.

C

6

I just sent you a DM. :+1:

7

rats, I was hoping to learn something here

Joe

8

Hi Joe. I’m going to post a summary of Eddie and my DM conversations here when we are done… next 24-48h hopefully. it’s been useful.

C

9

It’s likely that the ratings given are different from the expected, ie a short endurance that is not marked Easy, a vo2 that is not marked Hard (plus the actual execution quality) - prediction then fluctuates accordingly.

10

So Eddie (from TR) and I have been exchanging DMs over the last 3 days (thanks Eddie).

The metrics that feed into the AI model are power, HR and RPE. They are not all weighted the same and (though we didn’t discuss this explicitly) if it’s like other AI models I am more used to dealing with, the algorithms that define the output are hidden somewhere in the layers of the AI model so the exact ‘weights’ that each of these have are opaque and may vary. Power is #1.

Eddie noted a couple of things that might have been holding me back:

I was not updating my FTP when the AI suggested I do. This was because I felt the workouts I was offered were too easy (see my other thread on this if you like) but what this means is that the AI sees me struggling on workouts it thinks I should not be struggling on (because my FTP is set too high) so offers me less intensive workouts for the future. Counterintuitively accepting the lower FTP means I will be prescribed harder workouts which will be more productive in the longer term.

From Eddie:

…if you lower your FTP, you’ll get higher-level workouts that will feel similarly hard to what you’re doing now, but will be more productive. For example, let’s say that your FTP is 250, but you have it set to 270. You could maybe do 3x8 at 270, and it would feel hard, but if you bumped your FTP down to 250, you could probably do 3x12 or even 3x20 at 250.

With the way that TR AI works, we won’t give you 3x12 or 3x20 at 270 if we think your FTP is 250. You’d probably fail those workouts. Instead, we look for low-level workouts that we think you could pass. That’s where your training is currently at.

Bump your FTP down, though, and you’ll have more opportunities for harder workouts that we think you could pass.

[Aside: Masters plans (I’m 55) have max 2 hard rides a week]

The other thing I wasn’t doing is providing TR with my RPE for my outdoor activities. Which won’t be helping. That’s my bad.

Fundamentally I guess it’s about trusting the machine. It felt wrong as it seemed to be offering me easier workouts which I felt were lowering my FTP, leading to easier still workouts and so on in a downward spiral. So I didn’t accept the lowering FTP to try to avoid this, but that was part of the problem and was reinforcing the issue, not reducing it.

I’m gonna try trusting the AI, dropping my FTP in TR and seeing what happens. I guess I could do a ramp or 3 /20 min test but I really really hate those!

Big thanks to Eddie at TR for his help and time on this.

Chris.

11

Awesome! Thanks for the summary

12

To me, the bigger issue is predicted FTP getting lowered after completing a workout and rating rpe as expected prior to the workout. Nailed the last threshold workout, rated as hard (which was expected) and predicted FTP drops 4 points. Maybe I’m missing something, but that seems like you’re darned if you do and darned if you don’t.

13

Are you doing your workouts outside?

14

Yup.

15

Then you’re almost certainly running into the bug we’ve been discussing recently.

We’re hoping to have a fix out soon!

16

Thx Eddie. Appreciate the reply.

17

Outdoor workout TSS seems to be pretty broken for outside (new thread probably!) and especially so if you’re mountain biking or just riding.

I have a power meter and my wife doesn’t. She is 20 FTP watts stronger than me. My TSS was 105 on our 3hr bentonville rides. Hers 165.

18

Could you message me with both of your usernames and the date of the ride, and I’ll take a look?