Training for Rolling Road Race based on last race data

Hello TR afficionados

After a few wins in rolling road races in local C grade, my mate (also a TR fiend) and I were promoted to local B grade for weekends road race. It was 60kms, quite rolling terrain though nothing long or steep, and conditions were very windy. The course is out and back, so that wind was almost entirely head or tail wind. Long story short, a break of 3 got away on the second last lap and only 3-4 of us were interested/able to do any chasing at the end. Not a terrible result, i had a small ammount left in legs, enough to put out a small sprint (it was an uphill downwing sprint) for 4th.

I honestly didn’t feel like I had much more to give in the race, i was attempting to conserve energy, thinking that any early breaks would struggle with the massive headwind and the winning move wouldn’t be until late. By the end I had some cramp to deal with also.

My question really is how do I go about analysing the race data to determine:

  1. What systems/targets should i be setting to become more competitive in the bunch?
  2. How far off my threshold/fitness numbers are from that race, i.e. how hard was this race relative to my numbers?

My last block was a SS Base 2 block using FTP of 305 tested approx 7 weeks ago, so i’m anticipating a small bump in FTP which ranged last year from 305-335. I’ll test again this week but guessing my FTP around 315.

I’ve split the race in two: first hour and remaining 35 mins. The first hour i just concentrated on settling in to the bunch and course. Drinking as often as possible.

First hour:
NP: 334W = 106% FTP
Av: 228W = 72% Threshold

At this point of race I tried to switch more to reducing the peaks needed to hold wheels/close gaps, trying to use wind and bunch tactics, move up at every opportunity where the pace came off, being more attentive to the wind and only getting on/near the front in the downwind sections.

Second 35 mins:
NP: 316, 100% FTP
Av: 259, 82% FTP
I managed to lower the NP and increase my av power at least.

Just a thread to discuss, any opinions/guidance is much appreciated.