# Tour de France 2022 - Hot Takes / Predictions / Spoilers Allowed (once the. Tour starts) **URL:** \ **Category:** Racing\ **Created:** [June 19, 2022, 12:37pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/tour-de-france-2022-hot-takes-predictions-spoilers-allowed-once-the-tour-starts/73674 "2022-06-19T12:37:53Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![AlphaDogCycling](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/alphadogcycling/32/13863_2.png) [@AlphaDogCycling](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/AlphaDogCycling)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2022, 12:37pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/tour-de-france-2022-hot-takes-predictions-spoilers-allowed-once-the-tour-starts/73674/1 "2022-06-19T12:37:53Z")
With the Tour about 2 weeks away, it’s time to start with Hot Takes and Predictions. Here are mine: - Ineos, EF, etc. should give up on the GC battle (leave that to UAE and JV) and go for stage wins and the polka dot jersey - Barring JV being able to get significant time on either / both stages 2 and 5, Pogacar will win his 3rd tour in a row Update with COVID Drop-out Poll GC Favorites who get COVID and drop-out - who can pick up to 10 _Poll ([view on site](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/tour-de-france-2022-hot-takes-predictions-spoilers-allowed-once-the-tour-starts/73674/1))_ ---
**Author:** ![TxAg15](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/txag15/32/65162_2.png) [@TxAg15](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/TxAg15)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2022, 1:06pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/tour-de-france-2022-hot-takes-predictions-spoilers-allowed-once-the-tour-starts/73674/2 "2022-06-19T13:06:48Z")
I think Pog’s luck runs out this year and he gets hamstrung by a crash/mechanical/COVID. Hopefully not, but feels like his luck is due to run out. ---
**Author:** ![pnzr](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/pnzr/32/115393_2.png) [@pnzr](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/pnzr)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2022, 1:12pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/tour-de-france-2022-hot-takes-predictions-spoilers-allowed-once-the-tour-starts/73674/3 "2022-06-19T13:12:25Z")
Hot take: Pogacar out with Covid, Roglic crashes. Vingegaard wins, Vlasov second, Thomas third ---
**Author:** ![Aeroiseverything](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/aeroiseverything/32/99105_2.png) [@Aeroiseverything](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/Aeroiseverything)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2022, 1:27pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/tour-de-france-2022-hot-takes-predictions-spoilers-allowed-once-the-tour-starts/73674/4 "2022-06-19T13:27:31Z")
Thomas wouldn’t manage to go third if there were only 4 riders left in the race. The man is finished! Pog wins. He is the best ever until convicted. ---
**Author:** ![theflyingduttman](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/theflyingduttman/32/97785_2.png) [@theflyingduttman](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/theflyingduttman)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2022, 1:41pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/tour-de-france-2022-hot-takes-predictions-spoilers-allowed-once-the-tour-starts/73674/5 "2022-06-19T13:41:18Z")
Unless he gets injured/covid then it’s Pog for his 3rd title. Vlasov Roglic vingegaard Carapaz Are all in the frame if he isn’t fully fit The big unknown is how Van Aert’s aspirations for the Green Jersey will impact TJV’s approach to their quest for the yellow jersey. ---
**Author:** ![kevistraining](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/kevistraining/32/171237_2.png) [@kevistraining](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/kevistraining)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2022, 1:41pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/tour-de-france-2022-hot-takes-predictions-spoilers-allowed-once-the-tour-starts/73674/6 "2022-06-19T13:41:58Z")
Shocked if Pog doesn’t win to be honest - he’s phenomenal. ---
**Author:** ![pnzr](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/pnzr/32/115393_2.png) [@pnzr](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/pnzr)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2022, 1:43pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/tour-de-france-2022-hot-takes-predictions-spoilers-allowed-once-the-tour-starts/73674/7 "2022-06-19T13:43:09Z")
He’ll probably win Tour de Suisse…wouldn’t call that finished ---
**Author:** ![pnzr](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/pnzr/32/115393_2.png) [@pnzr](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/pnzr)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2022, 1:43pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/tour-de-france-2022-hot-takes-predictions-spoilers-allowed-once-the-tour-starts/73674/8 "2022-06-19T13:43:58Z")
Is Carapaz confirmed for TDF? He rode Giro… ---
**Author:** ![trpnhntr](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/trpnhntr/32/93473_2.png) [@trpnhntr](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/trpnhntr)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2022, 2:54pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/tour-de-france-2022-hot-takes-predictions-spoilers-allowed-once-the-tour-starts/73674/9 "2022-06-19T14:54:23Z")
I hope this one is wrong but I think in race (or immediately pre-race) covid positives will play a major role in the outcome Pog wins again Jonas will finish ahead of Rog and neither of them will have a major crash or time loss from mechanical And my hottest of takes…WvA wins the green jersey but zero stages ---
**Author:** ![theflyingduttman](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/theflyingduttman/32/97785_2.png) [@theflyingduttman](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/theflyingduttman)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2022, 3:02pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/tour-de-france-2022-hot-takes-predictions-spoilers-allowed-once-the-tour-starts/73674/10 "2022-06-19T15:02:02Z")
Wow… if WVA didn’t win any stages that would be the biggest cycling shock of the year ---
**Author:** ![AlphaDogCycling](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/alphadogcycling/32/13863_2.png) [@AlphaDogCycling](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/AlphaDogCycling)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2022, 3:08pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/tour-de-france-2022-hot-takes-predictions-spoilers-allowed-once-the-tour-starts/73674/11 "2022-06-19T15:08:26Z")
That’s exactly why I added the poll to my original post. Based on what happened with the Tour de Suisse, I’m betting that COVID will be a deciding factor in this year’s Tour. Either because it knocks out one of the favorites, or has a major impact on one of the favorites teams. If stages 2 & 5 were later in the race, I would bet that COVID would be the deciding factor, as a favorite with a weaker team on these two stages could lose massive amounts of time. ---
**Author:** ![pnzr](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/pnzr/32/115393_2.png) [@pnzr](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/pnzr)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2022, 3:09pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/tour-de-france-2022-hot-takes-predictions-spoilers-allowed-once-the-tour-starts/73674/12 "2022-06-19T15:09:44Z")
What’s so special about stages 2 and 5? Crosswinds and cobbles? ---
**Author:** ![AlphaDogCycling](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/alphadogcycling/32/13863_2.png) [@AlphaDogCycling](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/AlphaDogCycling)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2022, 3:14pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/tour-de-france-2022-hot-takes-predictions-spoilers-allowed-once-the-tour-starts/73674/13 "2022-06-19T15:14:24Z")
Yes: - Stage 2 - 90 kilometers along the coast (wind / echelons) + crossing the Great Belt Bridge, which is 21km from the finish, and the bridge is ~6.8km in length so more change of crosswinds / echelons / chaos - Stage 5 has 11 cobbled sectors So both of these stages have the potential for significant time to be taken from GC contenders, if the conditions are right and a team attempts to use these stages strategically. I’m really hoping that JV or another team (or a combination of several teams) with a GC contender tries to use these stages to put minutes into Pogacar. If that doesn’t happen, the Tour GC battle will be as much of a snooze fest as the Giro was IMHO ---
**Author:** ![Larzi](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/larzi/32/12893_2.png) [@Larzi](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/Larzi)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2022, 3:55pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/tour-de-france-2022-hot-takes-predictions-spoilers-allowed-once-the-tour-starts/73674/14 "2022-06-19T15:55:10Z")
Thomas did well by winning Tour de Suisse and looks on the right track. That being said, I don’t think he is favourite to land a spot on the podium. ---
**Author:** ![Aeroiseverything](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/aeroiseverything/32/99105_2.png) [@Aeroiseverything](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/Aeroiseverything)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2022, 5:15pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/tour-de-france-2022-hot-takes-predictions-spoilers-allowed-once-the-tour-starts/73674/15 "2022-06-19T17:15:20Z")
I find the Tour de Suisse and a grand Tour very, very different. Thomas has exited recent GTs after crashes or feeling bad. You can probably push through those things in a 7 day event. Not so much in a 23 day event. Then again, it remains to be seen how hard fought the podium places are. Sometimes the level behind the first two falls off dramatically. Just don’t think Thomas is a top 5 rider atm, probably top 20 on a top 2 team. ---
**Author:** ![djwalker1260](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/djwalker1260/32/85102_2.png) [@djwalker1260](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/djwalker1260)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2022, 5:29pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/tour-de-france-2022-hot-takes-predictions-spoilers-allowed-once-the-tour-starts/73674/17 "2022-06-19T17:29:39Z")
No green jersey for Sagan. Covid for the third time this year and only two weeks before the TdF. ---
**Author:** ![Larzi](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/larzi/32/12893_2.png) [@Larzi](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/Larzi)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2022, 5:55pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/tour-de-france-2022-hot-takes-predictions-spoilers-allowed-once-the-tour-starts/73674/19 "2022-06-19T17:55:36Z")
> [@Bbt67](#): > > He won the Tour and came 2nd (who knows what might have been before the hail storm, mute point though), before that he worked for Froome. Sure. But that’s a really long time ago when you are on the tail end of your career. At 36, his ability to recover is on the decline. > [@Bbt67](#): > > Thomas, has been extremely unlucky, but for a random bidon, should have won the Giro. Favourite in that race - yes. But the crash was already on stage 4. Not like he was cruising to victory only to be taken out by a crash in the last few days. Much could have happened in-between stage 4 an 21. That being said, I wouldn’t totally rule out a podium spot in the tour. I just don’t think he is a favourite for it. ---
**Author:** ![NoonPower](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/c4cdca/32.png) [@NoonPower](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/NoonPower)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2022, 7:00am UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/tour-de-france-2022-hot-takes-predictions-spoilers-allowed-once-the-tour-starts/73674/20 "2022-06-20T07:00:25Z")
Roglic will catch COVID - it’s just the law that he is on the receiving end of bad luck. Van Aert probably won’t as he went through it less than 6 months ago. Pogacar definitely won’t because robots are not vulnerable to human/animal diseases. (JOKE, I love the guy more and more the more I see of him.) ---
**Author:** ![Poul\_Bentsen](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/poul_bentsen/32/13771_2.png) [@Poul\_Bentsen](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/Poul_Bentsen)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2022, 8:47am UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/tour-de-france-2022-hot-takes-predictions-spoilers-allowed-once-the-tour-starts/73674/21 "2022-06-20T08:47:52Z")
The bridge is 16.5km in total (high bridge + low bridge). All of that is completely exposed. There was a fondo event last week testing out the route of the TDF stage, so segments were created: [https://www.strava.com/segments/31982441?filter=overall&gender=M](https://www.strava.com/segments/31982441?filter=overall&gender=M) ---
**Author:** ![AlphaDogCycling](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/alphadogcycling/32/13863_2.png) [@AlphaDogCycling](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/AlphaDogCycling)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2022, 3:19pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/tour-de-france-2022-hot-takes-predictions-spoilers-allowed-once-the-tour-starts/73674/22 "2022-06-20T15:19:24Z")
Given Sagan’s experience, I’m not sure that having COVID recently is any protection against getting it (or a different variant) again within 6 months. I think several GC riders will drop out with COVID, and at least 1 team will get decimated. [Next page](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/tour-de-france-2022-hot-takes-predictions-spoilers-allowed-once-the-tour-starts/73674.md?page=2)