Pro Cycling Thread 2024

MVDP - Philipsen duo is an interesting combination for Alpecin. MVDP not on top form, but Philipsen on fire and has yet to figure out if he is a pure sprinter or a classics rider. They could both be in the front over the Poggio and then have the advantage to the line.
Magnus Cort has the perfect physique for this race, however he needs to be positioned in top ~20 into the Poggio to have a go - which is not his strong suit.

A vote for Jasper Philipsen

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true but, would also be awesome to see.

I agree, Philipsen w/ MVDP seems like it could be a TKO. My only doubt is MVDP’s form.

Pogi is a great bet, but I just love an underdog and he has seemed so dominant this year. I would think he is the best bet. His Paris Nice performance was stunning.

WVA & Laporte is a great duo, but WVA fitness in my eye is unknown. They guy is incredible so I would be surprised if he was firing on all cylinders though it seems unlikely.

Alaphilippe’s fitness seems less than great so far this year. If he were 100% I would put him as a strong contender. Regardless of his fitness, I think if he is there he will make a move as that appears to be his style. Easily one of the most exciting riders to watch of his generation.

As MVP said himself this week, you don’t need to be in top form to win MSR.

How many times has Sagan recently finished high in standings in MSR only to disappear from subsequent races because his overall fitness is poor (but people will point to MSR and proclaim he is “back”)?

With proper positioning in the pack, a good team, proper fueling, etc. you can “bluff” your way into the finale at MSR.

So even though MVP’s form looked a bit suspect at T-A, I’m still putting him up there with the favorites and would not expect to see him necessarily sacrifice his chance at the win for Phillipsen.

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Think one of the biggest things that makes this race so fun to watch is the hugely visible role that psychology plays on the race

Pog is definitely flying, but everyone in the peloton knows this and since the climb isn’t ‘hard’ enough to clearly drop everyone the best way to escape is not on strength alone, but on strength plus underestimation.

No one will underestimate Pog, so for me the only conceivable way he can win is to get away with a group where he is not the sprinting favorite, and then outsprint them ala Montreal last year. He’ll never get separation and solo in, too many people watching that wheel.

Coming in on ‘bad’ form like WVA and MVDP are bringing might be an advantage as people might hesitate and before they realize it you have second group dynamics and a ‘weaker’ rider can solo in. Not saying I am picking them, I’ll stick with my earlier shot of Soren Kragh, but the path to victory for the ‘top’ rider is extremely hard in this race

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The key to this race is to make it hard when it’s “easy”. So by the time the key selections points happen, it’ll be about the most durable riders.

Again, Pogi excels there.

It seems to me that the “Key selection points” pretty much never turn out as the key selection points or at least its not clear.

What I really like about the event is you never know its over until it’s over.

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Yeah, I think this year feels like another year where the race is won about 3km from the finish line.

Much like how the women’s world champs was won. The group will come together again and someone will slip up the road on their own while everyone stares at each other.

Lots of talk about Mahoric and his dropper again. I have a theory that the dropper doesn’t make a heck of a lot of difference to his descending speed advantage, last year it looked purely about risk acceptance. Now will they make it harder to try pop him off, or is anyone else willing to throw caution to the wind. It would have been a great one to see Pidcock give chase on.

Yeah, MSR is about recognizing the “right” moment and capitalizing on it vs. there being “decisive” points on the course.

Everyone knows to be up form in Arenberg, on the Koppenberg, etc…but MSR is often won based on circumstances. See Sturyven’s win a few years ago as a perfect example.

Agreed.

It’s not his physical ability. It’s his positioning in finishes. He’s lacking confidence in very competitive finishes. He’s also not a peak 5sec guy. Strongest power relative to the peloton is his long sprint. His 30sec power is truly crazy…

If Lotto can support him better in finishes he’ll win a lot of races.

He can also get over climbs better than most pure sprinters.

We’ll see, hopefully he gets a high profile win to bolster his confidence. Personally, I think he needs to swap teams, urgently.

I think he’ll be one of the most sort after riders in 2025, contract year. If I was a big team. I’d be buying out his contract and taking him for 2024.

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Not yet - but soon!

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What is a more soothing sporting event for a nap?

  • The Masters
  • First 200k of Milan San Remo

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Impressive by Van Der Poel. Was shocked Ganna and van aert couldn’t get together to bring it back.

Not sure I’ll do it again, but watched almost all of it on the trainer. In the spirit of the race, did 6 hours at 2.8w/kg, then 15 minutes at 5w/kg. Can’t say it’s the most fun I’ve ever had, but I’ve earned my beers today

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In hindsight, MVP’s win makes complete sense….Strade was his first race back and then he used T-A for training with the goal of peaking for Holy Week. So him starting to come good today should have been obvious.

Wout has got to be developing a complex now….seems the only time he gets a big win is when MVP isn’t there or he has an issue. I think Wout is the better overall rider, but head-to-head, MVP always seems to have his number.

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I though Ganna was going to win after the Cipressa, MVP seemed to take a few strange lines in the corners on the decent (not that I can talk or am an expert) but then didn’t put a foot wrong after that.

Would have been interesting if Pidcock had been in the race, he and Mohoric are the only ones I can think of that could have closed the gap to MVP on the Poggio decent.

I started the feed at the beginning and paused it as I had to go out, I skipped trying to find interesting point that might have had an impact towards the end, but really you could just watch the last 9km. But what a last 9km it always seems to be.

One of the two strong guys I excluded won the race. I made some money with VWA to reduce my losses.

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I don’t see a dropper post …

… neither here :upside_down_face:

What an awesome watch. Very impressive win from MVdP.

Doled out the right amount of oomph at the right time.

I also thought they’d be able to bridge with Aert and Ganna, but Ganna wasn’t a fast enough descender and looked a little gassed.

Enjoyed that one.

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There are the obvious comparisons to Cancellara and typically that’s the kind of thing to take with a grain of salt. But he only has to get slightly better technically and it’s a very legitimate comparison. The fact that Pogacar and WVA couldn’t come over the top of him at the finish says a ton about the raw power he was still putting down

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