# Past FTP detection = Future FTP prediction. Why won't TR AI workouts improve my fitness? **URL:** \ **Category:** Training\ **Created:** [February 19, 2026, 10:45pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/past-ftp-detection-future-ftp-prediction-why-wont-tr-ai-workouts-improve-my-fitness/111331 "2026-02-19T22:45:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 16\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![SteveITKC](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/steveitkc/32/7721_2.png) [@SteveITKC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/SteveITKC)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2026, 10:45pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/past-ftp-detection-future-ftp-prediction-why-wont-tr-ai-workouts-improve-my-fitness/111331/1 "2026-02-19T22:45:59Z")
I’m in the final build phase of a Demanding Training Approach Custom TR AI plan. I just got my new FTP Prediction, and it’s the same number as the FTP detection for the 28-day period that just ended. This upcoming block has no vacation days, 2 interval days, and 3 endurance days a week for 3 weeks, concluding with a recovery week. If the FTP Prediction is an indicator of my upcoming fitness level, is TR telling me that the workouts it has planned for me won’t improve my fitness during this next build phase? It’s not like I’m bumping up against a 5w/kg fitness ceiling. Far from it. What’s the point of using TR AI and busting my butt doing the workouts if the program prescribing my workouts is telling me upfront that my fitness won’t improve? Not very motivating… ---
**Author:** ![therealemm](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/therealemm/32/12908_2.png) [@therealemm](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/therealemm)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2026, 10:52pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/past-ftp-detection-future-ftp-prediction-why-wont-tr-ai-workouts-improve-my-fitness/111331/2 "2026-02-19T22:52:36Z")
![Screenshot_20260219-144859](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/original/3X/3/d/3dbf90e323513a8db3a3143be0790ac86baf5f54.png)ftp prediction today said 332, then after that prediction the prediction for my next is 4w lower. 🫠 ---
**Author:** ![Jolyzara](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/jolyzara/32/97333_2.png) [@Jolyzara](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/Jolyzara)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2026, 11:01pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/past-ftp-detection-future-ftp-prediction-why-wont-tr-ai-workouts-improve-my-fitness/111331/3 "2026-02-19T23:01:10Z")
Can you link or provide screenshots of your calendar? There’s more to fitness than FTP. Are you increasing volume, TSS, time in zone? Are you working on things that may introduce fatigue? Will doing another block at the same FTP lower RPE? (Also a sign of improved fitness) ---
**Author:** ![SteveITKC](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/steveitkc/32/7721_2.png) [@SteveITKC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/SteveITKC)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2026, 11:08pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/past-ftp-detection-future-ftp-prediction-why-wont-tr-ai-workouts-improve-my-fitness/111331/4 "2026-02-19T23:08:21Z")
Just following the custom plan TR prescribed for me for my upcoming event schedule. TR is the pilot, I’m just the passenger. I’m following the plan they laid out. Unless I’m misinterpreting this, they’re telling me their plan for me won’t improve my fitness. ---
**Author:** ![Helvellyn](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/helvellyn/32/95205_2.png) [@Helvellyn](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/Helvellyn)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2026, 11:10pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/past-ftp-detection-future-ftp-prediction-why-wont-tr-ai-workouts-improve-my-fitness/111331/5 "2026-02-19T23:10:16Z")
Try Balanced rather than Demanding. See if that makes a difference. ---
**Author:** ![patrickhill](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/patrickhill/32/12893_2.png) [@patrickhill](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/patrickhill)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2026, 11:13pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/past-ftp-detection-future-ftp-prediction-why-wont-tr-ai-workouts-improve-my-fitness/111331/6 "2026-02-19T23:13:17Z")
These predictions are highly sensitive to the assumed survey response. If your actual survey response follows the distribution of possible outcomes rather than the most common one every time (which is highly unlikely), you may get a significantly different final result. ---
**Author:** ![SteveITKC](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/steveitkc/32/7721_2.png) [@SteveITKC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/SteveITKC)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2026, 11:24pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/past-ftp-detection-future-ftp-prediction-why-wont-tr-ai-workouts-improve-my-fitness/111331/7 "2026-02-19T23:24:01Z")
Thanks. I revised the plan as you suggested. Same FTP Prediction. The only differences between the two were three 0.2 to 0.5 easier endurance workouts with the Balanced plan. TR says “ **Demanding -** Faster progress with higher training load. Requires consistent sleep, nutrition, and recovery to avoid overreaching.” That’s why I selected it. I want Faster Progress. If I get consistent sleep, nutrition…etc., I’d think there would be a bigger upside for the demanding plan, or at least FTP Prediction would predict I’d be more fit. Don’t understand why it doesn’t ---
**Author:** ![SteveITKC](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/steveitkc/32/7721_2.png) [@SteveITKC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/SteveITKC)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2026, 11:26pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/past-ftp-detection-future-ftp-prediction-why-wont-tr-ai-workouts-improve-my-fitness/111331/8 "2026-02-19T23:26:51Z")
Thanks. I agree with you. But wouldn’t the FTP prediction be based on the most common possible outcomes? And that prediction says my fitness doesn’t improve. ---
**Author:** ![patrickhill](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/patrickhill/32/12893_2.png) [@patrickhill](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/patrickhill)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2026, 12:59am UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/past-ftp-detection-future-ftp-prediction-why-wont-tr-ai-workouts-improve-my-fitness/111331/9 "2026-02-20T00:59:53Z")
Yes, well kinda. But as has been discussed on other threads…. If, for example, you have 9 intense days scheduled in a block and they each have a 55% probability of saying very hard and a 45 percent chance of saying hard, then the the prediction will assume you will rate ALL 9 as very hard, when statistically, you would rate 4 of them as hard. This particular example would result in an underestimation of FTP, which may be happening in your case. ---
**Author:** ![Jolyzara](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/jolyzara/32/97333_2.png) [@Jolyzara](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/Jolyzara)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2026, 4:48am UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/past-ftp-detection-future-ftp-prediction-why-wont-tr-ai-workouts-improve-my-fitness/111331/10 "2026-02-20T04:48:18Z")
> [@SteveITKC](#): > > Unless I’m misinterpreting this, they’re telling me their plan for me won’t improve my fitness. Maybe I don’t understand what you are asking…. But you can improve fitness without improving FTP. ---
**Author:** ![JoeX](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/joex/32/6640_2.png) [@JoeX](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/JoeX)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2026, 5:28am UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/past-ftp-detection-future-ftp-prediction-why-wont-tr-ai-workouts-improve-my-fitness/111331/11 "2026-02-20T05:28:16Z")
> [@SteveITKC](#): > > just got my new FTP Prediction, and it’s the same number as the FTP detection for the 28-day period that just ended. Try reading [the FAQ](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/trainerroad-ai-ftp-prediction-faqs/110207) ---
**Author:** ![SteveITKC](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/steveitkc/32/7721_2.png) [@SteveITKC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/SteveITKC)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2026, 12:01pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/past-ftp-detection-future-ftp-prediction-why-wont-tr-ai-workouts-improve-my-fitness/111331/12 "2026-02-20T12:01:18Z")
Thanks JoeX. I did read the FAQ and none of the “most common scenarios” applied. That’s why I posted to the forum, as suggested in the FAQ if none of the scenarios applied. ---
**Author:** ![SteveITKC](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/steveitkc/32/7721_2.png) [@SteveITKC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/SteveITKC)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2026, 12:07pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/past-ftp-detection-future-ftp-prediction-why-wont-tr-ai-workouts-improve-my-fitness/111331/13 "2026-02-20T12:07:08Z")
Patrick, Thanks. I see what your saying. But if there is that 55/45 probability, shouldn’t the prediction be based on that probability rather than a 100/0 very hard probability? ---
**Author:** ![JoeX](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/joex/32/6640_2.png) [@JoeX](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/JoeX)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2026, 12:12pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/past-ftp-detection-future-ftp-prediction-why-wont-tr-ai-workouts-improve-my-fitness/111331/14 "2026-02-20T12:12:37Z")
> [@SteveITKC](#): > > none of the “most common scenarios” applied 👍 useful for us to know ---
**Author:** ![Flashpoint51](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/flashpoint51/32/7746_2.png) [@Flashpoint51](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/Flashpoint51)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2026, 1:06pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/past-ftp-detection-future-ftp-prediction-why-wont-tr-ai-workouts-improve-my-fitness/111331/15 "2026-02-20T13:06:48Z")
> [@SteveITKC](#): > > That’s why I posted to the forum, as suggested in the FAQ if none of the scenarios applied. For the forum to be able to help, can you post screenshots of your last 4 weeks training and your projected plan - or better yet, make your calendar public. Otherwise it’s tricky to have an opinion as to what changes might be useful. ---
**Author:** ![patrickhill](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/patrickhill/32/12893_2.png) [@patrickhill](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/patrickhill)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2026, 2:55pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/past-ftp-detection-future-ftp-prediction-why-wont-tr-ai-workouts-improve-my-fitness/111331/16 "2026-02-20T14:55:01Z")
That’s what a lot of us have been saying. They aren’t using the probability distribution, they are using the mode (most likely) only, which is causing drift in the prediction. Nate was talking about using some sort of Monte Carlo analysis to fix this, but it’s too compute intensive. We have recommended other alternatives.