Nah, you are not suddenly losing 5 watts because you skip one workout, your legs do not evaporate that fast. The prediction tools just react to planned training load, so when you remove a key session like over unders the model recalculates the stimulus and spits out a slightly lower number. In real life your FTP will barely notice one missed day. I have skipped whole weeks because of work and the next test was basically the same, maybe 1 or 2 watts difference. The algorithm is just being dramatic.
People might be conflating actual/current FTP with predicted FTP.
Of course prediction changes as reality plays out.
When you lose or gain predicted Watts it’s a refinement of the prediction, not a physiological change. This should be self-evident.
We all know that TR cannot actually predict the future, right? They aren’t working on a time machine either. It’s an estimate of gains, probabilistic. Not definite.
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