Have you been taking rest weeks?
Personally, I’d just use the new FTP. Better to push from below rather than have an over-stated FTP and training too hard.
Since no competitions are happening anyway, it might be wise to rest and then build the base with lower intensity rides before returning to harder work.
I highly recommend checking HRV daily. HRV4Training is only $10. I do it every morning and it definitely shows me the trends of fatigue setting in. And, there are plenty of times when it shows I’m digging the hole a little too deep but I can still get out there and ride and perform adequately. When I do that though, I seem to dig the whole a bit deeper.