# AI estimate decreasing after each workout **URL:** \ **Category:** TrainerRoad Software\ **Created:** [March 19, 2026, 9:34am UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/ai-estimate-decreasing-after-each-workout/112501 "2026-03-19T09:34:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 9\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![ignaciofope](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/ignaciofope/32/12890_2.png) [@ignaciofope](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/ignaciofope)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2026, 9:34am UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/ai-estimate-decreasing-after-each-workout/112501/1 "2026-03-19T09:34:50Z")
Hi, Since I started using AI FTP detection, I’ve been noticing the following across three different estimations, starting from a previous FTP of 332: It always gives a very optimistic increase. Here’s today’s latest example. I do all my training outdoors, and I try to upload only the actual workout to TR (I usually ride ~15 extra minutes to get back home/work, but very easy, so I try not to include that). The FTP estimate gradually trends down over time, even if I mark workouts as “easy” or follow its suggested rating (moderate/hard). When the new detection day comes, FTP doesn’t change at all. For example, yesterday it showed an increase from 332 to 339. I did the workout (81 TSS vs 80 planned), and the estimate dropped back to 332. Today it’s still at 332W. At the same time, the future projection is SUPER optimistic — it says I’ll reach 373W in 28 days (which seems unrealistic). It’ll probably decrease over time to 332w again… ![Screenshot_2026-03-19-10-30-56-578_com.trainerroad.android.production](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/original/3X/c/2/c29a9613c682123bb29b36cbff6360fbf53c75c9.jpeg) ![Screenshot_2026-03-19-07-40-28-490_com.trainerroad.android.production](https://global.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/original/3X/c/1/c1d21da20d65b7ac515d358dfe7c7e2c2062fa14.jpeg) ---
**Author:** ![spinnnout](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/spinnnout/32/15455_2.png) [@spinnnout](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/spinnnout)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2026, 10:37am UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/ai-estimate-decreasing-after-each-workout/112501/2 "2026-03-19T10:37:13Z")
There isn’t really enough to go on here, worth considering sharing more as per guidelines. > [@Updated Forum Guidelines](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/updated-forum-guidelines/111501/): > > Hey all, We’ve made some recent changes to our forum guidelines around how we work through athlete cases in public threads. Below is what we’ve added, and also [here’s a link](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/faq) to where this lives on our forum for reference. Posting About Your TrainerRoad Account From time to time, athletes post about their training plans, adaptations, or other aspects of their TrainerRoad experience. We love that! But context is everything. Without it, it’s really hard for anyone to give you a helpful answer, … ---
**Author:** ![ignaciofope](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/ignaciofope/32/12890_2.png) [@ignaciofope](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/ignaciofope)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2026, 12:23pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/ai-estimate-decreasing-after-each-workout/112501/3 "2026-03-19T12:23:39Z")
I guess I change my profile to public! [Calendario - TrainerRoad](https://www.trainerroad.com/app/calendar/ignaciofope) ---
**Author:** ![Caro.Gomez-Villafane](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/caro.gomez-villafane/32/129856_2.png) [@Caro.Gomez-Villafane](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/Caro.Gomez-Villafane)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2026, 12:50pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/ai-estimate-decreasing-after-each-workout/112501/4 "2026-03-19T12:50:37Z")
Hey @ignaciofope 🙂 Do I have permission to share Calendar info? I am seeing a few things that are a bit odd and may be the reason to the decreased FTPs. If not you can always contact [support@trainerroad.com](mailto:support@trainerroad.com) ---
**Author:** ![ignaciofope](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/ignaciofope/32/12890_2.png) [@ignaciofope](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/ignaciofope)\ **Post date:** [March 19, 2026, 1:11pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/ai-estimate-decreasing-after-each-workout/112501/5 "2026-03-19T13:11:07Z")
Yes! ---
**Author:** ![Joe](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/joe/32/11680_2.png) [@Joe](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/Joe)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2026, 3:00am UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/ai-estimate-decreasing-after-each-workout/112501/6 "2026-03-20T03:00:23Z")
Why are these problems only happening for people with ftp over 300? Like this is the zillionth thread with “my ftp was 330 now it’s 320”. Looking forward to how this one works out ---
**Author:** ![LacticacidMCB](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/lacticacidmcb/32/167517_2.png) [@LacticacidMCB](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/LacticacidMCB)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2026, 6:39pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/ai-estimate-decreasing-after-each-workout/112501/7 "2026-03-20T18:39:06Z")
In this case the trend of lower FTP also corresponded to a previously averaging 650 tss then a break then now averaging 438 tss. I think that may also be confounded by the bug that was mentioned where people who ride primarily outside get an artificially high FTP prediction. ---
**Author:** ![ignaciofope](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/ignaciofope/32/12890_2.png) [@ignaciofope](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/ignaciofope)\ **Post date:** [March 20, 2026, 7:42pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/ai-estimate-decreasing-after-each-workout/112501/8 "2026-03-20T19:42:38Z")
Second daughter rules!! 🤣 At least im doing 450. Also, this year (and probably always) I dont worry too much about numbers (it’s been a while without races or gran fondos). I was just curious about this huge change and the absolutely nosense 373ftp. And also because I feel good and strong with this level of tss. I feel good in 3’/5’/10’ efforts and I dont plan rides longer than 3h/4h this year. ---
**Author:** ![Caro.Gomez-Villafane](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/trainerroad/forum/user_avatar/www.trainerroad.com/caro.gomez-villafane/32/129856_2.png) [@Caro.Gomez-Villafane](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/u/Caro.Gomez-Villafane)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2026, 2:03pm UTC](https://www.trainerroad.com/forum/t/ai-estimate-decreasing-after-each-workout/112501/10 "2026-03-27T14:03:36Z")
Hey @ignaciofope 🙂 I apologize for the late response on this one. After looking into ti, what you are experiencing is a bug. We’ve identified an issue with how our model projects planned outside workouts. If the entire plan is set up as outside workouts (like yours) this affects your predictions more than most. Our team has a fix ready for this that will go out alongside some broader model improvements, so **predictions** for outdoor plans should be more accurate from the start going forward.