2021 Races & Rides -- Go or No?

I can’t comment on the US but in the UK 3/4 of the country is in effective lockdown. The statements from the Government seem to indicate a likely relaxation of the rules - assuming all goes well - from late Spring. Realistically I cannot see mass participation events prior to late Summer at the best and quite possibly not in 2021 at all. Sadly, I think that makes the it is/it is not ok discussion rather academic, at least here. My own personal take is that we all have a responsibility to follow the rules, whatever they may be - simple as that.

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Apparently 24 Hours in the Old Pueblo has been cancelled.

I really need racing

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280k people got sick YESTERDAY. over 4,000 died YESTERDAY. Comparing that to death by car accident. 40k died by car accident in 2019. Almost 400k have died by Covid in the past 10 months. And the rate of death is going up exponentially, not down, while automobile deaths are declining. How can you even try to make a comparison?

Not to mention, driving is essential and unavoidable for many. This is ludicrous.

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I believe that Zwift has close to a 100 today, something similar tomorrow too.

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Im over indoor racing. I need the real thing. Just like I want to sit down and eat my dinner somewhere.

Sit on your bike trainer & eat dinner. :smiley:

Are there café rides on zwift? :thinking:

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Prediction: Zwift willl start making its own brand of coffee. It’s one of the signs of the apocalypse.

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The real sign of the apocalypse would be if there were cafes in Zwift, and every time you stopped at one, you got a real coffee :rofl:

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The real sign might be when you can zwift in a Sim’s game. :flushed: Hope we don’t all end up doing simulated simulated café rides from our tricked out gaming chairs. La-Z-Boy will be the new Specialized. I just depressed myself.

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I have contemplated framing a couch out of carbon fiber. Save 10kg over a traditional couch! Such performance!

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Ha! Would that mean paying your buddies less pizza & beer when they help you move?

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Thinking about it more… a carbon/titanium sleeper sofa may make it not the heaviest thing on the planet.

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You mean like this https://gplama.com/2020/05/29/cycling-in-grand-theft-auto-v-with-gtbikev-details-setup-install-how-to/?

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More like this:

Good to know Sims indoor training/racing is stuck in the torturous 1950’s mode.

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Right now, I’m not certain of the timing of my state’s vaccine rollout. I’m in the last priority group. I’m not doing any large group events until I am personally vaccinated. I’m up for a solo version of anything, that’s for sure. There was one small gravel ride last year that I did, and it was small enough that we were all dispersed at the start and on course. At the finish, there was enough space to keep your distance also; some people talked, but we were all outdoors. I think that sort of thing is acceptable. I don’t normally do TTs, but you can clearly do them similarly.

There may be a grey area with some events. There’s a May Gran Fondo I’d like to do if safe. It is unlikely I will be vaccinated by then (it’s in the realm of possibility, and I hope I am, but right now I’d say there’s maybe a 10% chance that happens). Right now, the site is talking about an afterparty, which I assume is outdoors. The thing is, this was a fairly popular event in normal times, so I’m not sure how safe I would feel. I think not many people will be up for a century ride in May, so I may do that (but retain the option to bail out if there’s too much crowding on the road), and I may not go to the party. If it’s a lot of people showing up, I don’t think I can really do it in good conscience. If I did traditional road racing or crits, that would be a grey area also, since those are inherently mass start and you inherently have to keep pace with the pack.

At present, I don’t know how I would feel about large events later in the year. I would assume there’s a good chance most of us will have vaccines available by then. If I am offered the vaccine, I will take it. The thing is, they are 90% efficacious, meaning that I could be in that 10% and someone else in the crowd could be also, plus we don’t know if you can be vaccinated but still be infectious if you get Covid. And we also can assume that not everyone who’s offered the vaccine will take it. I imagine event organizers would restrict the events to people who can show they’ve been vaccinated. The thing is, you’re still in that 10%. Right now, I would lean towards this is an acceptable risk, but my views may change depending on what happens on the ground.

I had a lot of fun with solo and small group challenges last year. If the whole of 2021 has to be that way, I will be bummed but accepting. I hope it does not come to that, but I think we should plan for that to be possible.

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Here’s an article on how to think about social distancing after getting vaccinated. This is changing my thinking a bit in the direction of more caution. The key point is that we need a community to hit herd immunity before we can safely relax social distancing. That means that 75-85% of the people in the community are vaccinated.

First, that’s quite a few people. There’s the actual availability being constrained, plus a lot of people are hesitant to take the vaccine.

Second, recall that herd immunity means that an outbreak won’t be self-propagating. An outbreak will die out because the virus quickly runs out of new hosts to infect. This is good, but it’s not the same as nobody gets infected. There’s still some risk to others.

I’m still thinking I would be OK with a smaller event where the organizer requires that participants be vaccinated. We would still have to have masks on when interacting with everyone else. I don’t know if there’ll be social pressure in the right direction by mid next year, when everyone is tired and they think they’re vaccinated so they’re OK.

I am a bit more hesitant about larger events based on this information, as you can’t help but interact with the community. We will have to see. The thing is, I don’t know how we would get reliable and prompt information on how many percent of people in a community are vaccinated. I suspect the quality of information available will vary depending on where you are. In principle, I would expect it to be available at the county level in the US at least, but that is a bit of a coarse measure as the county is going to be heterogeneous, and you may have rides that span multiple counties, and there may be lags in vaccination data, etc.

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With Sea Otter moving to October, I think that is the earliest there are going to be major races where the riders are not bubbled.

The rate of vaccinations right now is not encouraging or where we need in order to make 2022 relatively normal. We need to be putting around 1.2-1.4M doses in folks per day to reach herd immunity by the end of 2021 in the US.

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We only have had about 5 weeks of no group riding/racing where i am in AU earlier in 2020. We just had 3 days off over the last weekend as a precautionary lockdown, but all back to normal again. I expect racing this year to be going ahead here, but with occasional missed weeks here and there if any cases pop up

This is true, but do remember that our capacity to produce new vaccine doses should be increasing, plus we get more and more practice at administering the doses, plus we will probably get some more current vaccine candidates improved.

That said, we are also going to be encountering vaccine refusals … I know a minority of healthcare workers are refusing to get vaccinated for now out of concern over side effects. I mean, I don’t agree but I do understand the vaccine approval process got really compressed. I don’t want to flame people who are nervous about potential side effects and who don’t want to jump first. For that matter, social media shaming certainly won’t work on the hardcore refusers…