There was an article on my local news that said something to the tone of “doctor recommends mask wearing even for those who have been vaccinated”, speaking to my friends in medicine one thing that is not clear yet is whether being vaccinated stops you from transmitting, so just because you get a vaccine does not necessarily mean you are protecting everyone around you. Now, if everyone was vaccinated this wouldn’t be a problem, but even if every single person was on board with getting the vaccine, that’s still a tall order for the populations that most countries have, and depending on how the countries are geographically too. It’s likely much easier to vaccinate all of NY than all of the state of Montana just because the population density is so different, and its easy to be ignorant to this fact if you live in a big city
I think you might have that reversed. Increased density and absolute population size makes it harder to vaccinate to minimize negative externalities (i.e. disease and death)
When looking at the data, low density low population states are meaningfully ahead of high density high population states:
It’s quite clear that in the U.K. the policy is stop people from dying and then accept that this is endemic and get back on with lives and try and get the economy recovered. We’ve just about vaccinated all the over 80s and medical staff, next stage is over 70s which starts today. We were vaccinating 300,000 a day last week and we’ve just opened another 10 major vaccination hubs. The scale that we are doing it is truly incredible, probably because the tories have threw money at it and then left it to experts to actually organise.
That is evidenced here as well
London has given fewest vaccines
London has administered the lowest number of vaccinations in England’s regions so far, NHS England data shows.
A total of 417,225 jabs were given to people in the capital between 8 December and 17 January, including 367,209 first doses and 50,016 second doses.
This compares to 746,487 total jabs in the Midlands, 681,317 in the North East and Yorkshire, 541,145 in the North West, 652,350 in the South East, 461,792 in the South West and 424,135 in the East of England.
Although that might be something to do with the population that live in London, I wonder because of the cost of living there if there are less over 80s who live in the capital.
Interesting. I would have figured the opposite, easier to get more vaccines out when there are more people near those sites (like in cities). I’d think that it’s harder to get everyone on board if they are spread out and have to drive a long way for the shot, or the vaccine has to come to them.
Did you mean this to reply to my post?
Yea because your post was about easing of restrictions which I don’t feel will happen as quickly as most of us hope
Yep, and the reason you give is exactly (one of the reasons) why I think the restrictions will be with us a while. It was @Simo429 who was more confident.
What has also become clear through this pandemic is that while scientific data can develop sound response plans, none accounted for the social aspect and the fact that people may not follow direction and may in fact push back.
Part of the messaging on masks going forward, even after vaccination, is to ensure consistent messaging and not creating distinct groups that makes enforcement and the acceptance of mask wearing hard, and to ensure that messaging is clear.
I think there will be a big push to get events on this year due to the amount of cancellations last year. However, I think it’s crazy that people are even contemplating events this year. Countries have just started rolling out vaccines, why would we risk putting loads of people close together. People will need accommodation etc I really feel for organisers but this feels like putting people’s lives at risk. Not just the participants (who are willing to join) but more local communities who probably don’t want a bunch of strangers from outside the local area turning up and potentially spreading the virus. Feels very likely people could lose a lot of money if they pay to enter events this year which are probably going to get cancelled. Forget 2021 and come back SAFE and strong in 2022.
Both situations have logistical challenges, but it eventually becomes a numbers game made harder by the fact that this disease requires distancing to stay safe.
8.5 million people live in NYC. So to vaccinate 10% of the population you need to give out 1.7 million shots at a time when appointments are spread out 15 minutes apart and a huge number of medical workers are already working massive hours treating people already sick with covid. Even if every doctor’s office and pharmacy was doing nothing but giving out shots, which of course they can’t, you’re still only talking 40ish shots a day per room. You’d need 42,500 days of rooms to get 10% of the population.
Helena Montana has 32k people. 6400 shots to vaccinate 10% of the population. 160 days of rooms. You could do 10% of the population with 12 doctor’s offices dedicating one room full time to just vaccine recipients in under two weeks.
If it wasn’t a disease that spreads the way it does, then yeah it’d be easier to inoculate massive numbers in a big city, for sure.
It is an interesting approach. From what Ive experienced in Australia, where we now have basically no COVID cases outside of hotel quarantine, and similarly NZ, short term hard lockdowns and mask mandates to contain and eliminate has resulted in better outcomes for the economy in the long term. This was evident as varying restrictions across states resulted in different outcomes in different areas
Of course both these countries are quite lucky in that our geographical isolation makes it a bit easier to manage importing COVID
And circling back around the to the topic
Racing is almost certain to go ahead here, with minor restrictions, but I am really struggling to decide on my goals for the year. Usually CX is a big target for me, but I dont feel like my heart is in it this year. Do I aim for the local TT series, or do I just aim to improve my sustained efforts, maybe crits and working on my short power. Maybe I should look at getting a coach, but then without goals what is there really to coach? Bit all over the place!
There was some racing in Ireland in 2020, when restrictions eased. All sign on’s online, no changing rooms available, no presentation/ inside hall - basically rock up, race, go home.
I’ve my own clubs mid-june open race at the end of my plan builder. I’m hopeful rather than optimistic to be honest. I think mass participation events like sportives seem more problematic to me, given the inherently social nature of them.
I’ve enjoyed zwift racing/ timed events, and it’s kind of re-ignited that bug in me. However, part of looking to races rather than sportives and gravel grinders is that they’ll be more local, less financial commitment, and more likely to go ahead.
The MidSouth Gravel race in Mid March just announced it will go virtual. No a huge surprise to me.
Latest update from SBT GRVL
“ While we’re all about fun at SBTGRVL, your health and saftey come first. That’s why we’re excited to announce our partnership with Wild Health, national leaders in providing end-to-end COVID testing and consulting services for large events. We’re working closely with their team of physicians to determine the protocols for safely hosting #SBTGRVL, including planning for the implementation of rapid testing during the event weekend. We’ll keep you updated as more information becomes available.”
By August, hopefully the vaccine will have change the trajectory of the virus sufficiently where big races can go ahead. TBD I guess.
Let’s not forget that for some states in aus (ex. Victoria) “severe” lockdowns occurred last july to contain the virus. 111 or 112 days straight of full scale lockdown, far beyond what much of America has undertaken at any point to really curb the spread. Those actions, combined with better weather which aides in slowing the spread due to less time indoors, and mask mandates and proper protocols have allowed Aus to be in the place it is now.
So unsurprisingly, my one 2021 event - Levi’s Gran Fondo - was just postponed from May to “Spring 2022”.
For California at least, it’s looking more and more like 2021 will be a repeat of 2020 with zero to very, very limited number of events.
And yet every week the TR podcast is still mainly focused on race tactics. Wish they could shift more towards what to do with current events/situations. Maybe that’s just me though…
They’ve discussed quarantine strategies a ton lately.
All the 2021 Epic rides are cancelled.